207 FXUS64 KCRP 300059 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 759 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .DISCUSSION...THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE MID LEVEL TROF...SEEN VIA WATER VAPOR SATELLITE...REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND NW COASTAL WATERS. LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT LEADING TO SCT SHRA/TSRA'S REDVLPG AND MOVG INLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS PROG AN OFFSHORE FLOW TO DVLP SAT MORNING WHICH COULD PUSH THE BETTER CONVERGENCE/PRECIP FARTHER OFFSHORE LATER IN THE MORNING ON SAT. CURRENT POP FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WATERS AND LOWEST POPS ACROSS THE W CWA OVERNIGHT INTO SAT. TEMP AND WIND FCST ALSO LOOK REASONABLE. THEREFORE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST AT THIS TIME. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/ DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS. AVIATION...CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF VCT FOR A FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THIS EVENING. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AND LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITHIN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH A MID LEVEL LOW LOCATED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS PROG TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING NORTH ON SATURDAY. POSITIONING OF SURFACE LOW/TROUGHING AND ESPECIALLY OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE CRITICAL WITH WITH REGARDS TO AMOUNT/COVERAGE OF PRECIP. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND I HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE LOCATED ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING NORTHWARD LATE IN THE NIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A LIGHT LANDBREEZE LATE TONIGHT WHICH WOULD HELP ENHANCE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. AREAS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY WILL HAVE MINIMAL CHANCES OF PRECIP DUE TO DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT AND IMPACTS FROM SLIGHT NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THIS MORNING GIVEN SLIGHTLY LOWER SURFACE MOISTURE VALUES WITH MAX TEMPS STRONGLY DEPENDENT UPON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND PRECIP. LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS HOW TO HANDLE THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE. PREVIOUS GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE BEEN TRYING TO SPIN THIS UP INTO SOMETHING MORE ORGANIZED...WITH ECMWF KEEPING IT AN OPEN WAVE. APPEARS NOW THAT MODELS ARE KEEPING IT AT WORST A SURFACE LOW BUT NOT ANYTHING TOO STRONG (NOT THAT THIS CANNOT TURN INTO SOMETHING MORE ORGANIZED). IN ANY CASE...FOLLOWING A MORE OPEN WAVE TYPE SOLUTION WOULD BE BETTER FOR RAIN CHANCES HERE IN SOUTH TEXAS...AND THUS AM GOING TO INCREASE POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND INCLUDE A MENTION OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY (COORDINATED WITH KBRO ON THIS). THUS...BY WEDNESDAY AS PWATS EXCEED 2 INCHES AGAIN WE SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING SPREADING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF OVER THE GULF. WILL DO THE SAME FOR THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME DRIER AIR IN ON FRIDAY SO WENT ONLY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION (MOISTURE IS STILL REASONABLE). BEFORE TUESDAY NIGHT...DID NOT MAKE TOO MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST...AS STILL EXPECTING SOME CONVECTION ON SUNDAY MAINLY EASTERN HALF WITH PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. MAYBE A BRIEF SHOWER TUESDAY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS BUT NOT MUCH OTHERWISE. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...KEPT THINGS WARM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY (ALTHOUGH DID LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO SOME AREAS)...AND THEN DID LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY GIVEN MORE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION (MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS). OVERALL THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DID NOT LOOK TOO BAD BUT DID MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON ISC COLLABORATION AS WELL AS AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO DIVERGE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ECMWF HAVING COOLER 2 METER TEMPERATURES THEN WARMER GFS AND EVEN WARMER CANADIAN THURSDAY MORNING. OVERALL...WENT FOR THE WARMER NUMBERS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 76 93 77 95 78 / 30 30 30 30 10 VICTORIA 76 95 76 96 78 / 20 30 30 40 10 LAREDO 79 100 80 101 80 / 10 10 10 10 10 ALICE 76 94 76 98 77 / 20 20 20 30 10 ROCKPORT 77 89 79 92 82 / 40 40 30 40 10 COTULLA 76 99 76 99 76 / 10 10 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 76 93 77 96 78 / 30 30 30 30 10 NAVY CORPUS 78 89 80 92 81 / 50 50 30 30 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ TE/81...SHORT TERM