438 FXUS64 KLIX 272025 AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 325 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN GULF CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AND SHOULD BE OVER SOUTH TEXAS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING WESTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LOCALLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED OFF OF LAKE AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES NEAR THE 90 DEGREE MARK. && .SHORT TERM... THURSDAY WILL SEE SIMILAR PRECIPITATION PATTERS TO TODAY WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FORMING MAINLY OFF OF LAKE AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AS TRIGGER TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES ARE REACHED. AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY RELOCATES TO NORTH FLORIDA BY FRIDAY...OUR STEERING FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO BE PUMPED INTO THE AREA. AS A STRONG TROF MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...IT WILL PULL ONE OF A SERIES OF EASTERLY WAVES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF INTO ITS CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES CONSIDERABLY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL DEPICTED...SO NO REAL CHANGES TO OUR POP FORECAST. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AGAIN NEARING 2.25 INCHES ON SATURDAY...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FOCUS OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW...AT LEAST IN AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE MIDDAY RAINFALL...AND CLOSE TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S SATURDAY. IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE DAY...THAT MAY EVEN BE AMBITIOUS. 35 && .LONG TERM... MAIN FORCING FROM UPPER TROF WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. THIS WILL RETURN THE AREA TO THE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG LAKE AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. 35 && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST. AFTN CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AND MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST AFTER 00Z. ANY LOW CU WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE 5Z AND ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER THAT. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW. /CAB/ && .MARINE... THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE WRN GULF HAS GOTTEN SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED BUT AFTER RECON WENT IN THERE WAS NO CLEAR CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO TX OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE FL STRAITS EARLY FRI. THIS MAY TEMPORARILY INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRI LEADING TO 10-15 KTS AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT OUT OF THE EAST/ESE. AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE WNW WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SRLY ON SAT. NEXT WAVE LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION SUN. /CAB/ && .DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...GREEN. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT. DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 71 91 72 92 / 10 30 10 30 BTR 73 93 74 92 / 20 30 10 40 ASD 73 92 75 92 / 10 30 10 40 MSY 77 90 78 91 / 20 30 10 40 GPT 75 91 77 91 / 10 30 10 40 PQL 71 91 74 91 / 10 20 10 40 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$