261 FXUS61 KCLE 120737 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 337 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND BACK SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND BE OVER OHIO BY FRIDAY MORNING AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH SLIGHTLY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WE EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS SINCE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. AS COLD FRONT MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA...SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH THE FRONT. STILL EXPECTING SOME SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THIS WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TRICKY DO TO TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AROUND NOON AND THEN THROUGH ERIE BY 8 PM THIS EVENING. THE MORE SUN WE GET THE HIGHER THE TEMPERATURES. AS MENTIONED...BATTLING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AS WELL. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SUN. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STALLS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WHILE IT EVENTUALLY MORPHS INTO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A PIECE OF ENERGY PLOWING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL DEAMPLIFY WITH TIME AND WASH OUT BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OUT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH TIME AND DRAG THE COLD FRONT EAST AND WELL OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFT OUT AS WELL. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND BRING A RETURN BACK TO FAIR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH EVENTUALLY SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BRINGING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TAKE PLACE AND THEN WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP BY THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE FORECAST IS BEGINNING TO CHANGE WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING IN A LOW AND FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. INTRODUCED 20 POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND 30 POPS ON SUNDAY AND THEN ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GO BACK ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 4 AM. SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM THE WEST. WITH PLENTY OF RAIN EXPECTING FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. GOING WITH THE HRRR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SQUALL LINE WITH THE FRONT AND SOME SHOWERS BEHIND IT WITH A TROF. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM THE WEST AFTER DARK. OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN PRECIPITATION LINGERING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. && .MARINE... CONTINUING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE THROUGH 10 AM BECAUSE OF 15 TO 25 KNOT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE LAKE TODAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING...ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY PICK UP TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THIS IS NOT A REAL COLD OUTBREAK AND THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT QUICKLY. BECAUSE OF THAT WILL NOT MENTION WATERSPOUTS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN ON THURSDAY AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. NOT EXCEPTING CONDITIONS TO MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ148- 149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY LONG TERM...KIELTYKA AVIATION...KIELTYKA MARINE...KIELTYKA