630 
FXUS64 KMAF 111922
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
222 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Low level ely winds have expanded across the area in wake of the
boundary. Per the NAM12 there are two SB instability axes one
extending SE to NW across the PB and another across the Lower
Trans Pecos. Convection currently developing along the boundary is
expanding slowly to NW and N where SB destabilization is occurring.
High resolution TTU WRF expands precip further n into the I-20
corridor into the afternoon. Scattered PoPs still looks good into
evening and have mentioned locally heavy rain wording closest to
boundary. Convection is expected to wane with loss of heating but
will be renewed with its onset Tue, especially across the Trans
Pecos where moist upslope flow/daytime heating attempt to compensate
for poor LR/s. Temperatures will warm back up a few degrees n of
the Pecos River, close to M90 seasonal levels. Mid level anticyclone
will expand its influence Wed/Thur helping temps to climb back
above normal with 85h temps in the mid/upper 20C range. Convection
will be suppressed too, even in the mtns, as an expansive mid level
theta-e minimum holds sway. Mid level ridge axis will move some to
the s Fri leaving much of the CWFA within wly flow at 5h signaling
a further amplification of the mid level theta-e ridge. This will
attempt to advect re-circulated theta-e ridge ewd by Sat PM favoring
high based isold convection, at least across the w-nw. Probably
still hot/above normal temps Sun/Tue due to close proximity of mid
level anticyclone with low probability PoPs across the w, if anywhere.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 69  91  70  96  /  40  20  10  10 
BIG SPRING TX              73  93  71  96  /  40  20  10  10 
CARLSBAD NM                72  89  72  95  /  40  30  20  10 
DRYDEN TX                  77  96  77  99  /  30  30  30  10 
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  91  72  95  /  40  30  20  10 
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  81  65  86  /  40  30  30  10 
HOBBS NM                   68  89  67  94  /  40  20  10  10 
MARFA TX                   61  84  62  86  /  30  30  30  10 
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    72  93  71  95  /  40  20  10  10 
ODESSA TX                  73  92  74  94  /  40  20  10  10 
WINK TX                    74  94  73  97  /  40  30  20  10 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$