487 FXUS65 KGGW 072035 AFDGGW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT 235 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT...MAKING FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH THAT SAID...CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST AS A WEAK DISTRUBANCE COUPLES WITH MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY. FRIDAY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCREASING ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. BY THE AFTERNOON THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CAUSE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. FRIDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL MONTANA...CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH. SATURDAY THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH...CREATING THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST MONTANA. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. GILCHRIST .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO DEPICT SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS BEGINNING ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE CWA WILL BE IN A POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND TRANSLATE EAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY DRY WITH A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 90S BY TUESDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO GROW ADDING TO UNCERTAINTY BEYOND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS A FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WHILE SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH AND A LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SETTING UP OFF THE WESTERN U.S. COAST. THIS WOULD PROVIDE A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE GFS DOES STILL HAVE THE TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST BUT HANDLES THE CLOSED LOW MUCH DIFFERENTLY WHILE MAINTAINING THE UPPER RIDGE FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL KEEP FORECAST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR MIDWEEK ONWARD ALL WHILE TRENDING TOWARD CLIMO. MALIAWCO PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION... SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH A FRONT HAVING JUST MOVED THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL START OFF A BIT COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AS FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST THIS COOL PATTERN MAY BE ABLE TO HANG IN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE TO THE WEST A MAJOR RIDGE WILL REBOUND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL TRANSITION ACROSS MONTANA FORMING A SERIES OF CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH VERY WARM WEATHER IN THE MID 90S. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DURING THESE PERIODS COULD EASILY RISE INTO THE 30*CS. IF THESE IS A BREAK IN THE EXITING RIDGE TO SOUTHWESTERN FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS COULD TICK UP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TUESDAY ONWARD... AT THIS POINT MODEL CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF DRAMATICALLY WITH THE MODELS UNSURE OF WHAT TO DO WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE THE ROCKIES OR THE TROUGH SETTING OF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BEST GUESS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS FOR THE RIDGE TO SLUMP OVER INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND ALLOW THE TROUGH BY TO THE NORTH... YET SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MOMENTUM OF THE TROUGH WILL FORCE IT DEEPER SOUTH INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... WHICH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNLIKELY... BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MODERATED POP AND TEMP TRENDS TOWARDS CLIMO DURING THESE PERIODS. GAH && .AVIATION... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. DO EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH MORNING. MALIAWCO && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW