633 FXUS62 KTBW 031306 AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 906 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014 .UPDATE... MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AROUND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...CAUSING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS AND AROUND THE BAHAMAS. FARTHER NORTH...AN INVERTED TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED FROM THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST UP TO THE MID ATLANTIC...PRODUCING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE ALL THAT...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY HEAT UP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND ASSIST IN DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. EXCEPTIONALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW OF AROUND 1 KNOT WILL MEAN THAT STORMS WILL BE PROPAGATED MORE BY SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE HEAVIEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS SHOULD BE INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. ADDITIONALLY...WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A MOIST PROFILE WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST. A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE REQUIRED AS THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES...WITH REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES POSSIBLE FOR PERIODS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. && .MARINE... A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BEFORE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN TAKE UP POSITION OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALTHOUGH WIND DIRECTION MAY BE A BIT ERRATIC THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE WEAK LOW MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS NEAR TSTMS. NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE UPDATE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 77 91 78 / 50 40 40 40 FMY 92 77 91 76 / 70 40 50 40 GIF 93 77 92 76 / 60 40 60 30 SRQ 91 78 90 77 / 40 40 40 40 BKV 93 73 92 73 / 50 40 40 30 SPG 91 80 91 80 / 40 40 40 40 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN DECISION SUPPORT...74/WYNN