229 
FXUS64 KMEG 022343
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
643 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COMBINED WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
BEING REACHED HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI THUS FAR. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH ARE IN THE 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT CHALLENGE IN THIS AFTERNOON/S
FORECAST. 

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS EAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARDS EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. SUBTLE SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TOWARDS EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY RAIN
FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...LONG RANGE MODELS
INDICATE THE MID SOUTH WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
BE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF RUNS WITH BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION PERHAPS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF
DOESN/T BRING A FRONT THROUGH UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. BASED
ON THESE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS...HAVE BLENDED THE SOLUTIONS WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEING CONFINED TO THURSDAY AND BEYOND
UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. 

CJC 

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

A QUIET NIGHT AHEAD FOR ALL SITES UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND FROM THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH FEW CLOUDS. HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AT MKL WITH FOG
LIMITING VISIBILITY. FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT JBR AND
TUP...THUS A TEMPO FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW
WITH FEW CLOUDS AGAIN. IF ANY THUNDER OCCURS WILL LIKELY BE IN
SAME AREAS AS TODAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO
MENTION AT TUP.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$