148 FXUS65 KRIW 311710 AFDRIW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 1110 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT KEPT FOG IN THIS MORNINGS FORECAST IN SOUTHERN WY WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OF UP TO AN INCH FELL IN PORTIONS OF LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST WY WED. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN WESTERN WY AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AS TEMPERATURES RECOVER CLOSER TO NORMAL THANKS TO MORE AMPLE SUNSHINE WITH LESS HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDINESS AROUND. ON FRIDAY EXPECT EVEN BETTER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDING UP AND OVER THE PARKED RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WILL SPIN A WEAK CLOSED OFF LOW OVER IDAHO AND THAT WILL PROPAGATE EAST TO CENTRAL WY BY FRIDAY NIGHT ACDG TO THE GFS. THE H7 CIRCULATION WILL TRACK JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER CO. SATURDAY WILL ALSO FEATURE ANOTHER DECENT ROUND OF MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MOISTURE STREAM ASCT WITH THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL EASTERLY WAVE...WHICH WILL THEN BE OVER NEVADA WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING EAST FROM IT INTO WYOMING...BISECTS A SFC LEE SIDE TROUGH. HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE AN UPWARD CLIMB THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN THE HEAT AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY RIDGE AXIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST OF US EARLY NEXT WEEK OPENING THE DOOR TO A SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH THAT ORIGINATE AS ELY WAVES UNDERNEATH OUR 4-CORNERS HIGH. THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE LARGER OF THE DISTURBANCES SOUTH OF US MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS TAKES THE MAIN DISTURBANCE/CIRCULATION ACROSS US LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY THEY ALL SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL DISTURBANCES/CIRCULATIONS. THE FORECAST WEAK FLOW AND PW'S OVER AN INCH IN MANY AREAS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN MONDAY AND OR TUESDAY SIMILAR TO OUR EPISODE THIS WEEK. A DRIER NW FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NORMALLY THIS COULD BE A FAVORABLE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN BUT WITH OUT A SURFACE HIGH TO THE N OR NE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SUSTAINED MOIST ELY FLOW EAST OF THE DIVIDE. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS DOES HAVE SOME ENERGY IN THE NW FLOW WEDNESDAY YET SO WILL KEEP OUR ISOLD LOWER ELEVATION POPS FOR NOW. MAINLY MOUNTAIN CHANCES BY THURSDAY. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY WITH H7 TEMPERATURES PUSHING 15C MEANING UPPER 80S TO SOME 90S EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEST WITH 65 TO NEAR 80 MOUNTAINS. COOLER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH RAIN POTENTIAL...HIGHER DEW POINTS AND CLOUD COVER. WARMING AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/ EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KCPR/KRIW/KLND/KWRL/KCOD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM 18Z UNTIL 04Z FRIDAY IN THE ABSAROKA...WIND RIVER AND BIG HORN MOUNTAINS. LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIRECTLY EFFECT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OR TERMINAL SITES...HOWEVER KCOD WILL CARRY VCTS TIL 03Z AS IT WILL BE CLOSE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS TILL 08Z FRIDAY. WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KJAC/KBPI/KPNA/KRKS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM 18Z UNTIL 04Z FRIDAY IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIRECTLY EFFECT THE TERMINAL SITES OR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS EXCEPT AN ISOLATED VALLEY OR TWO. WILL CARRY VCTS/SH FOR KJAC AND KPNA TIL 05/03Z RESPECTIVELY AS IT WILL BE CLOSE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS TILL 05Z FRIDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MORE PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER WESTERN WY AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CENTRAL BASINS. ANOTHER SLUG OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL...AGAIN...BRING ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LIPSON LONG TERM...SKRBAC AVIATION...JB FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON