503 FXUS63 KLBF 270816 AFDLBF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 316 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES FROM KCYS TO SOUTH OF KDDC TO KMCI. STORMS FIRING ALONG THIS FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING AS SEEN IN IR. SURFACE HIGH FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COOL AIR ADVECTION ALL DAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LOW OVER MINNESOTA WILL SEND A TROUGH THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA AND REORIENT THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH ENERGY ROUNDING THIS RIDGE STAYING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES TRANSLATE TO AROUND 80 NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. MIGHT NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION OF SEEING A HIGH 70 NORTH. MOSTLY SUNNY SOUTHWEST WITH CLEAR SKIES NORTH AND DRY. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE PLAGUED BY A STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL DEEPEN THROUGH MONDAY ALLOWING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST TO STRENGTHEN AS WELL WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION RETREATING BACK WEST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA MIDWEEK. THIS AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND. THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL HAVE INFLUENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...THEN UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS PLACED JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...GENERALLY CENTERED OVER THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA MOST DAYS...BUT DO EXPECT LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ARE LOOKING TO BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THAT COOLER AIR SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALSO BEING 5-10 DEGREES COOLER. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...EXPECTING HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA /NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST/ THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...IT WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST SO WHILE IT MAY BRING IN SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SHOULD NOT HELP TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD SO THE WARMER AIR MASS SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST. ALSO...WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST IT APPEARS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN AN AREA VOID OF HAVING ANY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS THROUGH. TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL PROGRESS OVER THE RIDGE...BUT THESE SHOULD GENERALLY STAY SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEST OF THE AREA WHERE THE STRONGER LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES. THEN LOOKING AT THE TRACK OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...THE MAIN TRACK WILL BE DOWN THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THAT WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIR FROM BEING PULLED TOO FAR WEST AND STAYING MOSTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALSO...MOST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHORTWAVES WHERE THE STRONGER LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A WEAK IMPULSE OF ENERGY COULD TRACK AS FAR WEST AS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE 27.00Z MODELS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT OCCURRING WOULD BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SO WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THESE PERIODS. ONE OTHER THING TO MENTION WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE HAS BEEN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LAST FEW FORECAST RUNS TO DEVELOP A SWATH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS DOWN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THIS AREA WHILE EASTERN NEBRASKA LOOKS TO SIT UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO INCREASE THE LARGE SCALE LIFT. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACKS THROUGH THE DAY AND FOCUSES OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE PANHANDLE. THEN TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO VEER BACK TO THE EAST AND ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SO WILL CONTINUE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HRS. FEW-SCT250 OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE ALSO MAY BE FEW-SCT100 AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY MAINLY BELOW 12KT...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 34014G22KT FROM 17Z-24Z AT KVTN. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...POWER LONG TERM...BROOKS AVIATION...ROBERG