466 FXUS66 KOTX 241130 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 430 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...Lingering showers and a few minor thunderstorms will continue for the northern mountains today as a cold front exits the region. Cool and breezy weather is expected today behind the cold front. Temperatures will rebound by the weekend and be accompanied by dry conditions. Hot weather will return to the area on Sunday and early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Friday: The Inland Northwest will find waning shower chances, breezy conditions and cool temperatures. Over the next 24-hours an upper low centered over north Washington tracks toward the Canadian Prairies. The low, and a weakening deformation axis wrapped around it, will provide continued shower chances across the Cascades and northern mountains. Some showers may also impact the Highway 2 and I-90 corridor, from the Waterville Plateau into the central Panhandle. However as the low continues to shift northeast and drier air and large-scale subsidence moves in behind it, shower chances will begin retreat toward the Cascade crest and shift further into the northeast Washington and northern Panhandle mountains and dissipate this afternoon and evening. With a lack of significant instability, the threat of thunder will be minimal. A modest pressure gradient and good mixing this afternoon with the strong subsidence will produce breezy conditions through the day. Gusts between 25 and 35 mph will be common from Chelan county east through the Spokane area and Palouse. Winds are expected to abate through the evening, particularly past 8 pm or so. As for temperatures, readings will be below normal. Regional 850mb temperatures under the low range from the upper single digits in the Cascades to the lower teens toward the Panhandle. This supports high temperatures some 10-15 degree below average. This means many areas, outside of the deeper Columbia Basin and L-C Valley, will only see highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s. Tonight and Friday the region transitions to a more zonal flow. A secondary mid-level disturbance slips onshore overnight into Friday morning, but the brunt of the lift remains north of the Canadian border. So look for dry weather and a few clouds. Winds will be pick up again in the afternoon as the gradients tighten again slightly with the northern wave and increased mixing, but speeds will be relatively lower. A few gusts between 15 to 20 mph will be possible in the afternoon. Temperatures will remain on the cool side of average, but overall values look about 5 degrees milder as compared to Thursday. /J. Cote' Friday night through Wednesday...Latest medium range GFS and ECMWF guidance is in remarkably good agreement in depicting a return to torrid dog-day summer conditions through the extended period. A strong 4 corners upper high will build into the region...becoming progressively stronger each day through Monday before stabilizing. this will allow the establishment of a strong low level thermal trough over the Columbia Basin which will promote hot days and sultry overnights through Wednesday. On or about Monday a shot of monsoonal moisture may side-swipe the southeastern zones and Idaho Panhandle with a small threat of thunderstorms...but this is a low confidence forecast at this point. Confidence is high that the forecast area will return to a dry and sunny above normal/hot stretch of summer weather this weekend through the middle of next week. /Fugazzi && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: An exiting upper low will bring some cloudiness and a threat of a few showers and, more notably, breezy conditions. Local wind gusts between 25 to 35 mph will be possible this afternoon and early evening, focused especially from 18-02Z. The shower threat will be best across the Cascade crest and northern mountains, away from TAF sites. However the isolated shower cannot be ruled out this morning. Also with recent precipitation and the low level southwest flow brief MVFR cigs are possible this morning across the GEG/SFF/COE/PUW area. However confidence is low and VFR conditions are depicted in TAFs. /J. Cote' && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 70 50 76 54 84 59 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 67 49 74 48 82 54 / 30 10 0 0 0 0 Pullman 69 46 75 44 83 50 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 78 55 83 55 91 61 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 70 49 78 48 87 53 / 30 10 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 65 47 72 47 81 50 / 40 10 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 64 49 72 49 81 56 / 30 10 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 76 54 83 53 89 60 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 73 57 82 60 87 65 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 74 52 82 53 88 58 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$