050 FXUS64 KJAN 202007 AFDJAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 307 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THESE AREAS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE POISED OVER THE ARKLAMISS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS WILL DRAG WHATS LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. PWATS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 1.0-1.2 INCHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF STRATUS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE STATE AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PWATS REMAIN AROUND 1.0-1.2 INCHES. EXPECT A LITTLE LESS CLOUDS THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THUS TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE AN UPPER LOW FROM NORTH ALABAMA TO SOUTH ALABAMA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI BY TUESDAY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND ALONG WITH THIS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I-55 TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET TUESDAY EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 OVERNIGHT. /15/ .PREVIOUS LONG TERM...DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. DECIDED TO GO WITH PERSISTENCE WITH MODELS JUMPING AROUND FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS ON POPS AND TEMPS. LOOKS LIKE THE CURRENT PATTERN WILL KEEP THINGS ACTIVE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT GREAT...EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY IN THE EXTENDED. LOOK LIKE THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL SEE MOST OF THE RAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING TO THE EAST AND RETROGRADING...IN ADDITION TO SEVERAL PASSING BOUNDARIES. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE WEILL BE GENERALLY WEAK FLOW...BUT AVERAGE PW VALUES AND SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY COULD BRING SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...SIMILAR TO THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SUMMER ACTIVITY. GUIDANCE TEMPS WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S A FEW DAYS AGO FOR THE EXTENDED...BUT THOSE VALUES HAVE BOUNCED AROUND SOME ALSO. FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE LOWER TO MID 90S WERE OK. WITH THE PATTERN CALLING FOR WAVES OF ACTIVITY...ALMOST LIKE THE SPRING OR FALL...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY LIMIT WARMING. HOWEVER...WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S...IT MAY GET HUMID A FEW DAYS. THE BOUNDARY FROM THIS WEEKEND SEEMS TO LINGER ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF SHIFTS BACK AND FORTH A FEW TIMES...SO BOUNDARY ALSO WAVERS...ALLOWING SOME ACTIVITY TO EXTEND INTO THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS AN UPPER WAVE BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN TROUGH AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD ATLANTIC COAST. THE TROUGH AXIS REMAIN ORIENTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CWA...SO MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. THE NEXT BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE REGION AROUND THURSDAY AND SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. A BOUNDARY/TROUGH AXIS REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA GOING INTO THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAY BE A WHILE BEFORE THERE IS A PATTERN SHIFT. && .AVIATION...DESPITE CONTINUED BKN-OVC CLOUDINESS...HEIGHTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE VFR CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE BREAKS AND THE CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SOME FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE BREAKS OCCUR. /SW/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 65 89 68 90 / 10 2 6 10 MERIDIAN 65 89 67 90 / 11 3 7 19 VICKSBURG 62 87 64 91 / 7 2 6 5 HATTIESBURG 69 91 70 93 / 21 13 9 26 NATCHEZ 66 88 67 90 / 10 7 5 12 GREENVILLE 64 90 67 93 / 4 1 7 4 GREENWOOD 63 89 67 91 / 4 1 6 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ 15/SW