950 
FXUS64 KHGX 180222
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
922 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A BUSY EVE WITH THE CELL TRAINING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY BY MID EVE...BUT THAT
HAS NOT OCCURRED GIVEN THE SFC BOUNDARY...STRONG SOUTHERLY 850 MB
INFLOW...PW VALUES OVER 2 INCHES...AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER GIVEN THE GOOD SETUP FOR CONTINUED CELL
TRAINING OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH AVG. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY HIGH...THERE WILL BE
SWATHS OF HIGHER TOTALS WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLOODING
PROBLEMS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. THE FLOOD THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT SE WITH TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE UPDATE THIS
EVE...WILL BUMP POPS UP CENTRAL AND NORTH AND ADD THE MENTION OF
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

33

&&

.PREY DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014/ 

UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
-TSRA PASSING EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL HUBS OF UTS AND CXO
WITH RETURN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FILLING IN FROM WEST OF CLL. THIS
PACKAGE HANGS ONTO THIS CONVECTION OVER NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH A MID
TO LATE EVENING BREAK...COMMENCING VCSH PAST MIDNIGHT WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ALONG THE REGIONAL WEST-TO-EAST
LOWER LEVEL TROUGH AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS.
A STRENGTHENING EARLY DAY LOW LEVEL JET/UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL ONLY
ENHANCE ACTIVITY WITHIN THIS UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
MANY HUBS WILL MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCE BREAKS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH CHANCES OF UPSTREAM RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA OR
TS GOING THROUGH THE 18/18-00Z PERIOD.  DECKS...GUSTY WINDS TO 30
MPH AND VSBYS LOWERING TO UNDER 3 SM WITHIN +TSRA. IN SHORT...
ANTICIPATING AN ACTIVE DAY TOMORROW. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  87  75  92  77 /  90  80  30  20  20 
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  87  75  92  77 /  80  80  40  40  20 
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  86  81  88  81 /  50  80  50  40  20 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...
     LIBERTY...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
     TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR 
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT 
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM 
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS 
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH 
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33