263 FXUS64 KMAF 162340 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 640 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014 .DISCUSSION... Please see the 17/00Z aviation forecast discussion below. && .AVIATION... Complicated and messy forecast. A linear MCS east of all terminals has pushed an outflow boundary northwest through MAF and just about to INK. Additional TSRA has moved off the higher terrain west of the Pecos and should be enough to warrant a TEMPO for MAF, INK, PEQ, and FST. After PBL stabilization later this evening the TSRA around the region should wane. However, a large MCS -- perhaps developing now southeast of Raton Mesa -- will track southeastward across the Panhandle, southwestern Oklahoma, and north central Texas by tomorrow afternoon. This in turn will send an outflow boundary/front into the Permian Basin sometime Thursday afternoon. This boundary may then provide focus for additional thunderstorm development, some strong to severe per the last SWODY1 from SPC. Don't have confidence right now in placement of this boundary this far out, nor do we have confidence in putting even a PROB30 at any one terminal at this time. Surface winds through the next 6 hours will be tricky enough. So -- outside of TSRA, expect VFR conditions and southeasterly winds of 10 to 20 mph with locally higher gusts. INVOF TSRA, MVFR conditions will be likely with variable gusty winds over 30 kts along with associated turbulence. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014/ DISCUSSION... A broad upper level trough is over the eastern 2/3 of the country with the CWA on the backside of this trough under northwest flow aloft. Various shortwaves are and will move over the area in this northwest flow. Currently, there are showers and thunderstorms developing and moving across the Davis Mountains and surrounding area, and a surface trough is present across southwest Texas and eastern New Mexico. Gusty winds and brief heavy rain will be the main threats with these storms although an isolated severe storm is possible across the northern Permian Basin where CAPE and bulk shear values are higher. Temperatures this afternoon are only expected to be slightly warmer than those yesterday afternoon. On Thursday, a shortwave rounding the base of the upper trough is expected to move over Oklahoma and send a cold front southward into the CWA during the afternoon. This will enhance lift over the region so scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday. Severe storms will be possible across the northern and eastern CWA where CAPE values will be over 1000 J/Kg and 0 to 6 km bulk shear values will be 35 to 45 kts per the NAM12. The lacking factor will be the mid-level lapse rates which will struggle to reach 7 degrees C/km. High temperatures tomorrow will be tricky to pinpoint due to the timing of the front and amount of cloud cover and precipitation. The upper trough will begin to move eastward on Friday and the cold front will finish pushing through the area Friday morning. Development of showers and thunderstorms will mainly occur along the front as it moves south, so most convection should be confined to the higher terrain and along the Rio Grande by Friday evening. Some strong storms with gusty winds will be possible in this area with CAPE values remaining high along the front. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees below normal on Friday with the surface ridge in close proximity to the area. An upper ridge will build over the region beginning on Saturday so thunderstorm chances will mainly be confined to the higher terrain of West Texas and southeast New Mexico. Temperatures will begin to warm up across the area as a result of the ridge. Many places will see triple digits temperatures beginning on Saturday. && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 70