760 FXUS62 KMHX 160205 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1005 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY....THEN STALL OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES DOMINANT. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 10 PM TUESDAY...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC HAS DISSIPATED TO LIGHT SHOWERS WITH REDEVELOPMENT NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE...REDEVELOPMENT HAS ALSO TAKEN SHAPE ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND...OBX AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT TROUGH/SFC FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES WILL HELP WITH LIFT OVERNIGHT AS SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND BETTER SHEAR IS IN PLACE AT THE SFC. GIVEN THIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION...BUT OVERALL THE LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGH MIDDAY WED WITH EXCELLENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THUS WILL MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS WITH HEAVY/WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH MIDDAY THEN DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST LATE WED. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES STILL 1400-1410 METERS WED THOUGH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S INLAND TO LOW 80S COAST. THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WED...AS THE AREA WILL BE UNDER FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF EASTWARD ADVANCING JET STREAK...PRODUCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF ~30-35 KT. THE LIMITING FACTOR HOWEVER MAY BE INSTABILITY...AS PLENTIFUL CLOUDS WOULD PROHIBIT MUCH DESTABILIZATION. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 345 PM TUE...MINOR DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE WITH REGARDS TO THE SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINING DOMINANT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS/NAM DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THURS THROUGH FRI...BUT WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THUR NIGHT AND REINTRODUCE LOW POPS FOR ALL OF THE AREA ON FRI. THE 15/12Z ECMWF ALONG WITH NAEFS PQPF INDICATE POSSIBILITIES OF SOME PRECIP MAKING IT ONSHORE ACROSS EASTERN NC AS A POTENTIAL INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG STALLED SFC FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS RETURNS DURING THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SURFACE FLOW RETURNS TO MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND A SHORTWAVE CROSSES IN MEAN SW FLOW ALOFT. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 730 PM TUE...A STRONG TROUGH WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE PERIOD GIVING WAY TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS HAVE OBSERVED THE BRUNT OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACH THE AREA...BUT VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING GIVEN THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE. FEEL A SURGE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP TO OUR SW AND MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE. LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE. REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SWLY FLOW VEERING TO THE NW BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THEREAFTER. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 445 PM TUES...DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. SEA- BREEZE SHOWERS/TSTORMS POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON WITH SFC TROUGH POSSIBLY AFFECTING EASTERN NC. A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SUB- VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OCNL LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 10 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. SEAS ARE 2 TO 5 FT NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND 4 TO 6 FEET SOUTH. WINDS ARE SW 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 25 KTS. GRDNT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT THRU TONIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND TRF/APPROACHING FRONT TO THE W. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY WED...THOUGH EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS IN WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WITH AN OCCASIONAL 6 FT SEA FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. LONG TERM /WED NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 345 PM TUE...WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY WED NIGHT AND THEN ALL WATERS BY THURS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. MAIN CHANGE TO LONG TERM WINDS WAS TO MAINTAIN NE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRI AND EVEN INTO SAT...AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SFC TROUGH SHARPENING OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES RIDING INTO THE CAROLINAS PRODUCING NE WINDS AROUND 15 KT...OCNL UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT INC TO 3 TO 5 FT THUR NIGHT THROUGH FRI. WINDS FINALLY SHOULD VEER AROUND TO MORE SE OR S BY SUN...THOUGH THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE WIND FIELD DURING THIS TIME SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME BEYOND SAT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-150. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154- 156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTC/LEP NEAR TERM...LEP SHORT TERM...BTC LONG TERM...DAG/TL AVIATION...DAG/LEP MARINE...BTC/DAG/LEP