007 
FXUS64 KCRP 281745 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1245 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION. 

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS S/SSE
WINDS HAVE INCREASED. GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BETWEEN 25 AND
30 KNOTS AT THE TERMINALS...SUBSIDING AROUND 02Z. DAYTIME HEATING
IS BEGINNING TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
SECTIONS AND WILL KEEP VCTS REMARKS AT VCT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS THIS UPCOMING NIGHT AND HAVE
INTRODUCED MVFR CEILINGS AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING AROUND 14Z/15Z...WHICH SHOULD MIX OUT ANY
CLOUDS PRESENT. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014/ 

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO VFR BY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION TODAY TO BE CONFINED NEAR
THE COAST. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DRG THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. ANTICIPATE THAT LLWS CONDITIONS WL OCCUR
AT ALI DRG THE 10-12Z SUNDAY PERIOD. SFC WIND AT THE TAF LOCATIONS
TO REMAIN ABOVE 10KT AND LIMIT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE 0-2KM
LAYER BEYOND LLWS THRESHOLD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014/ 

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS
REGARDING A TRANSITION FROM A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS NEAR THE
COAST TODAY TO AN BUILDING UPPER RIDGE SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
COPIOUS MOISTURE/WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND CAPE/CIN PATTERNS (NAM/GFS
DETERMINISTIC) WL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION OVER THE ERN
CWA/MSA TODAY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY OVER THE ERN CWA AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACRS THE SRN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGD TO LIFT NORTHWARD
SUNDAY. EXPECT MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES TODAY/SUNDAY GENERALLY LESS
THAN 105F.

MARINE...ANTICIPATE MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY/SUNDAY WHEN
CONSERIDING NEW MOON/ONSHORE FLOW/LIKELY SWELL PERIODS. ANTICIPATE
SCA CONDITIONS AREAWIDE THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY OWING TO THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVG ACRS THE SRN PLAINS/DOWNWARD
VERTICAL MIXING OF GREATER MOMENTUM.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WITH 
WARMING MIDLEVELS WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET EARLY IN THE EXTENDED AS 
BROAD RIDGING ENVELOPS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S.  BOUTS OF MOISTURE 
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 
THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAKENING IN THE CAP WITH H7 TEMPS FALLING TO 
NEAR 8C-9C ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED 
DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH MORE FOCUS IN THE AFTERNOON 
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME AGREEING WITH 
KEEPING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK 
WEEK...MUCH IN PART WITH DEVELOPING A MIDLEVEL INVERTED TROUGH AND A 
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. FOR NOW...AS PWATS 
ARE STILL RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND A GENERALLY WEAK CAP 
THAT SHOULD BREAK WITH HEATING...WILL MAINTAIN BROADBRUSH SLIGHT 
CHANCE POPS FOR THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STILL 
NOT CONVINCED CONVECTION WOULD MAKE IT FAR WEST INTO THE BRUSH 
COUNTRY AS DRY AND WARM MIDLEVELS REMAIN PRESENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO 
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...PEAKING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DID COOL LOWS 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS AS DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE...BUT WARMED 
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  93  77  92  78  /  10  10  10  10  10 
VICTORIA          78  93  76  94  76  /  10  10  10  10  10 
LAREDO            78 101  77 101  77  /  10  10  10  10  10 
ALICE             78  96  76  96  77  /  10  10  10  10  10 
ROCKPORT          81  87  79  90  81  /  10  10  10  10  10 
COTULLA           77 100  76  99  76  /  10  10  10  10  10 
KINGSVILLE        78  96  76  95  78  /  10  10  10  10  10 
NAVY CORPUS       80  87  79  89  80  /  10  10  10  10  10 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT 
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT 
     O'CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA 
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT 
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO 
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION