844 FXUS63 KLBF 220845 AFDLBF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 345 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014 OUTFLOW DOMINANT TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS MORNING. STORM DEVELOPMENT IS BEING AIDED BY MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AS SHOWN BY THE RAP MODEL AND NOCTURNAL COOLING IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE RAP SHOWS THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTING OFF EAST OF THE FCST AREA TOWARD 12Z WITH THE HEAVY RAIN BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION REDEVELOPING BUT NOT NEARLY AS UNSTABLE AS IT IS NOW. SCATTERED POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014 MONDAY AND BEYOND. ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED AS PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE WORKS WITH A NORTHWARD RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PERIODIC WEAK IMPULSES PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERLIES IN QUASI ZONAL FLOW...THUS...NEAR DAILY/NIGHTLY THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO REMAIN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LOOKING TO LATE WEEK...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS APPEARS TO UNDERGO A TRANSITION AS THERE REMAINS STRONG AGREEMENT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. LOW AMPLITUDE TRANSITORY RIDGING THURSDAY MAY PROVIDE FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD...BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMP BACK UP WITH THE APPROACH OF WEAK SHORTWAVES FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. FOR THE DAILY DETAILS...DRIER AIR TO WORK ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON MONDAY...WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION BEING WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT SUBTLE WAVE MAY PROVIDE FOR A FEW STORMS MONDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO BE TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE CWA. A MORE NOTABLE WAVE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS...POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TO MODERATE HIGH PLAINS LLJ. TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE PROJECTED CONVECTION AND/OR COMPLEXES IS NOT READILY APPARENT ATTM...SO WILL GENERALLY BROADBRUSH 30-40% POPS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH A FRONT IN THE REGION AND ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE PASSAGE. LIKEWISE...WIDESPREAD 30-40% POPS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY ARE WARRANTED. FOR LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MOST OF THE UPPER ENERGY IS SHOWN TO BE DIRECTED TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT THERE STILL REMAINS STRONG SUPPORT OF WAVE IMPACTING THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE CR ALLBLEND INT GENERATED CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...GIVEN THIS SUPPORT...SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE PROCEDURE ATTM. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTEND PERIODS WILL UNDERGO A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON MONDAY...BUT RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY FRIDAY. A FEW LOWER 90S MAY BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE LATE WEEK AS DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW DIRECTS AN AIRMASS FROM THE DESERT SW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOWS TO REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014 THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THROUGH 09Z SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. VISBYS MAY DROP AS LOW AS 3SM IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH CIGS AS LOW AS 5000 FT AGL. CIGS AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND 10000 FT AGL...EXCEPT SUNDAY EVENING WHERE CIGS WILL DROP TO 2500 TO 5000 FT AGL BEHIND AN EXITING FRONT. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...JACOBS AVIATION...CLB