741 
FXUS64 KCRP 190930
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
430 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE THIS MORNING ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SUSTAINED BY AN MCV THAT FORMED ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE EARLIER IN THE EVENING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z...BUT MAY NEED TO UP POPS
IF CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER. MODELS SHIFT MCV OR ITS REMNANTS TO
THE NORTH LATER TODAY...WITH WEAKNESS/SHEAR AXIS ALSO LOCATED TO
OUR WEST. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 2 TO 2.1 INCHES. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MAINLY OUT WEST AND WILL
BUMP UP POPS OVER THESE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS
WITH YESTERDAY...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. 
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 100S OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO LOWER 90S OVER THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PULLS AWAY FROM THE RIO
GRANDE HEADING INTO FRIDAY...WITH MOISTURE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE.
GUIDANCE IS SPLIT HAS TO WHETHER RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER OVER THE
WEST...BUT WILL LEAVE THE 20 POPS IN FOR NOW. ANOTHER VERY WARM
DAY CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12Z
AS ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS AT MODERATE TO STRONG LEVELS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 12Z 

&&

.LONG-TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LINGERING RAIN CHANCES 
OVER THE FAR WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING INTO 
THE NIGHT AS WEAKNESS ALOFT TO THE WEST OF THE REGION BACKS AWAY AND 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE 
WEEKEND WITH MORE SUBSIDENT PATTERN AND A GENERAL DECREASE IN 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY STILL LIES 
IN THE POPS FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. MODELS 
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST MONDAY AND 
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE END OF THE 
PERIOD. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION WHILE 
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER. KEPT MENTIONABLE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST 
FOR MONDAY AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE IN 
PLACE OVER THE REGION BY THIS TIME. HOWEVER...INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE 
MENTION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE SO 
ADAMANT ABOUT WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO KEEP 
WATCH TO SEE WHICH DIRECTION MODELS TREND. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY 
PERSISTENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL 
HIGHS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WINDS DROP MORE OVERNIGHT...SO WILL SEE A 
LITTLE MORE DIURNAL VARIANCE WITH LOWS BECOMING NEAR NORMAL AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    94  78  95  76  95  /  10  10  10  10  10 
VICTORIA          92  77  93  75  92  /  10  10  10  10  10 
LAREDO           101  79 100  77  99  /  20  30  20  20  10 
ALICE             96  77  96  74  96  /  10  10  10  10  10 
ROCKPORT          91  80  93  80  92  /  10  10  10  10  10 
COTULLA           98  78  97  74  99  /  20  30  20  20  10 
KINGSVILLE        95  77  96  76  96  /  10  10  10  10  10 
NAVY CORPUS       91  80  92  80  92  /  10  10  10  10  10 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT 
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO 
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY 
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS 
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM