059 FXUS64 KLIX 260902 CCA AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 358 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014 CORRECTED HURRICANE NAME TO AMANDA VICE ANDREA .SHORT TERM... THIS MEMORIAL DAY SHOULD BE THE LAST DRY DAY BEFORE A WET PERIOD ONSETS TUESDAY. VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SPINNING OVER NEW MEXICO WILL BE MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE OCCLUDING AND BREAKING AWAY FROM MEAN FLOW PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH. THE MOISTURE TAP ON THE EAST FLANK OF THE SYSTEM WAS DRAWING MOISTURE FROM CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AMANDA LOCATED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WAS FUELING THE HEAVY RAINFALL COMPLEX IN THE VICINITY OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN THOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES IN QPF AND RAINFALL COVERAGE ASPECTS. THE ECMWF WAS THE WETTER OF THE SOLUTIONS...AND THOUGH IT CAN NOT BE TOTALLY DISCOUNTED...OPTED TO GO CLOSER TO A STILL WET BUT NOT AS MUCH GFS FOR QPF AT THIS TIME. THE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS CAN BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE BUT DECIDING ON FAVORED LOCATIONS IS DIFFICULT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES...LAKE AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS ETC. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PATTERN. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO APPROACH 2 INCHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A VERY DEEP SOUTH WIND LAYER TO ABOUT 13KFT. .LONG TERM... DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE...THE UPPER LOW EITHER FILLS IN AND LEAVES A GENERAL WEAKNESS OVER THE GULF STATES LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...PER THE GFS. THE ECMWF HOWEVER MAINTAINS THE LOW PRESSURE STRUCTURE BUT MOVES IT BACK INTO TEXAS AS A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES THE END RESULT SHOULD STILL BE A GENERAL LESSER CHANCE OF RAINFALL CLOSER TO TYPICAL SEA BREEZE REGIME COVERAGE EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT SHOULD ALSO BE NEAR NORMAL...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON MORNING LOWS AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO PROJECT NEAR NORMAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. 24/RR && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KMCB AROUND 10-12Z THIS MORNING. THIS FOG COULD REDUCE VSBYS INTO MVFR RANGE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER RELATED IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS. 32 && .MARINE... WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...AS A SURFACE HIGH LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THERE WILL BE SOME TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MIDWEEK THAT WILL PUSH WINDS INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AND INCREASE SEAS TO BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS. THIS INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TEXAS. THE GRADIENT AND OVERALL WINDFIELD WILL BEGIN TO RELAX IN THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEAKENS. 32 && .DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...GREEN. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 87 68 83 67 / 10 10 50 40 BTR 90 72 85 71 / 10 10 50 50 ASD 87 71 84 69 / 10 10 50 30 MSY 88 74 84 74 / 10 10 50 40 GPT 86 77 84 74 / 10 10 20 20 PQL 85 69 83 68 / 10 10 20 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ 24/RR 32