183 FXUS64 KLZK 222331 AFDLZK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 631 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014 .AVIATION... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA . A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS FRONT MAY DIP INTO NORTH ARKANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG OR NEAR THE FRONT. WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014/ SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS BORDER...AND WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE STATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE NATURAL STATE THIS WEEKEND...AND THERE ARE SOME CHANGES TO THE RAIN FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOT AS STRONG OVER THE REGION TODAY...AND IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING ON SATELLITE. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN KANSAS AND WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT...BUT WITH CAP OVER ARKANSAS...NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS SHOWING RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT FORECAST WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS IN FRONTAL TONIGHT. THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...AS THERE IS A SIGNAL IN MODEL GUIDANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. AS OF NOW...KEPT POPS CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK...AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN HALF OF AN INCH. FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN. SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP MOISTURE ELEVATED ACROSS THE STATE...AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL APPROACH 90 IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. FOR SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL...BUT READINGS WILL APPROACH 90 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. LONG TERM...MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THURSDAY A WARM/DRY PATTERN WILL COME TO AN END AS A RIDGE ALOFT EDGES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SYSTEM WILL CUTOFF IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...AND THAT WILL LEAVE ARKANSAS IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY...AND RAIN WILL ADD UP OVER TIME. GIVEN A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SOME AREAS MAY END UP WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. WHILE CLOUDS/RAIN WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWN...READINGS WILL STILL REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BATESVILLE AR 64 85 63 80 / 10 20 20 30 CAMDEN AR 64 89 62 88 / 10 10 10 10 HARRISON AR 62 82 63 78 / 10 30 30 40 HOT SPRINGS AR 65 87 64 85 / 10 10 10 10 LITTLE ROCK AR 67 89 67 88 / 10 10 10 10 MONTICELLO AR 66 90 66 89 / 10 10 10 10 MOUNT IDA AR 61 86 60 84 / 10 10 10 10 MOUNTAIN HOME AR 63 83 63 78 / 10 30 30 40 NEWPORT AR 64 86 64 81 / 10 20 20 20 PINE BLUFF AR 66 88 65 87 / 10 10 10 10 RUSSELLVILLE AR 64 86 64 83 / 10 20 20 20 SEARCY AR 63 86 64 83 / 10 10 20 10 STUTTGART AR 66 88 68 87 / 10 10 10 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...51