171 
FNUS75 KTWC 211615
FWSTWC

SPOT FORECAST FOR BARLOW...SAN CARLOS AGENCY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST WED MAY 21 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0855 MST ON MAY 21. 
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

IN AN EFFORT TO PROVIDE THE BEST SERVICE WE CAN, IF TIME PERMITS
PLEASE USE THE FEEDBACK OPTION TO SEND BACK THE WEATHER THAT
OCCURRED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD YOU REQUESTED. AN EXAMPLE, THE
HIGH TEMP, MIN RH AND WIND SPEED FOR THE DAY OR THE WEATHER THAT WAS
OCCURRING DURING YOUR PRESCRIBED BURN.

.DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A 
MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY MID DAY TODAY AS WELL AS 
THURSDAY. JUST OFF THE SURFACE WINDS DIRECTION WILL BE PREDOMINATELY
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO MORE SOUTHERLY
BY THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 25 MPH WHICH WILL MIX DOWN 
FAIRLY QUICKLY EACH DAY. FOR THE FIRE EDGE ALONG THE RIDGE LINE 
ONLY A LITTLE MIXING WILL BE NEEDED TO SEE THE BREEZY WINDS. THE 
OTHER FACTOR IS THE DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT GIVEN THE RIDGE LINE BEING
PERPENDICULAR TO THE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. 

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE THE UPPER LEVELS OR AROUND 20
KFT...WITH A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS BELOW. HOWEVER...ONLY LIMITED
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE CLOUD LAYER. SO...MOST LIKELY ONLY SEE FLAT
ALTO CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
VIRGA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD NEWS IS NOT EXPECTING MUCH AFFECT
FROM ANY VIRGA TODAY. TOMORROW...SLIGHTLY COOLER UPPER LEVELS WILL 
SLIDE IN SO COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...HENCE THE 10 
POPS. STILL...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE 
DRY CONDITIONS BELOW THE CLOUD DECK. THEREFORE...EXPECT MAINLY DRY
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO ACCOMPANY ANY DEVELOPMENT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. 
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72 TO 75 DEGS. 
MIN HUMIDITY........9 TO 12 PCT. 
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 12 TO 17 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE 
                    AFTERNOON. 
LAL.................1. 
CHANCE OF RAIN......0 PERCENT. 
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. 

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. 
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42 TO 45 DEGS. 
MAX HUMIDITY........40 TO 43 PCT. 
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH 
                    BECOMING SOUTH UP TO 4 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
LAL.................1. 
CHANCE OF RAIN......0 PERCENT. 
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. 

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. 
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70 DEGS. 
MIN HUMIDITY........16 TO 19 PCT. 
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE 
                    AFTERNOON. 
LAL.................1. 
CHANCE OF RAIN......10 PERCENT. 
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. 

$$
FORECASTER...FIRE WEATHER FORECASTER
REQUESTED BY...PIFC
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20140521.BARLO.01/TWC

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON