728 FXUS64 KMEG 190404 AFDMEG AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 1104 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014 .UPDATE... DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED. && .DISCUSSION... LATEST OBSERVATIONS IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND ADJACENT NORTHERN ALABAMA SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MIDSOUTH COUNTIES TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY MORNING. JAB && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014/ UPDATE... UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014/ DISCUSSION... AS OF 3PM...TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WHERE SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. A PERSISTENT BAND OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF HAS KEPT NORTH MISSISSIPPI COOL FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH MOST PLACES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY TAPERED OFF AND MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST AND CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO THIN OUT AS WELL. FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE MS RIVER DELTA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S UNDER CLEAR SKIES...WITH NEAR 60 DEGREES ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA WHERE CLOUDS WILL KEEP THINGS FROM COOLING OFF AS MUCH. TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE A MUCH BETTER DAY WEATHERWISE THAN IT HAS BEEN LATELY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH INCREASING HUMIDITY. TUESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AND BECOME NEARLY CENTERED OVER THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE MID-SOUTH. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED UNTIL POSSIBLY THIS WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL INDICATING A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE WEST TENNESSEE ON THURSDAY AND MOVING SOUTH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND STALLING OUT ACROSS THE AREA. IT STILL SEEMS THAT MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ANY CONVECTION ON FRIDAY. NONETHELESS...DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AC3 && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES AS THE LAST ROUND OF PRECIP HAS TAPERED OFF...CIGS HAVE RISEN AND CLOUD COVER HAS BEGUN TO DECREASE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT...AND WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT FROM TODAYS RAIN...SOME FOG AND LOWER CIGS COULD FORM...PARTICULARLY AT KMEM AND KTUP. FOR THIS REASON HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO MVFR AT KMEM FROM 19/10Z UNTIL 19/14Z. PREVAILING MVFR AT KTUP AS FOG APPEARS LIKELY WITH A TEMPO FOR LOWER VISBY. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN DURING THE MORNING AS SUNSHINE AND INCREASING WINDS ERADICATE ANY REMAINING FOG. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AND FROM THE SOUTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ZDM && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS- CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE- PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-UNION. TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR CHESTER-FAYETTE- HARDEMAN-HARDIN-MCNAIRY. && $$