218 FXUS61 KCAR 160740 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 340 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AND STALL OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO BRING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE REGION. THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ONCE AGAIN RESULTING IN A LOW CLOUD LAYER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK LATER THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE WARMEST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. HIGHS HERE WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COOLER WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGHS ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST WILL REACH AROUND 70 DEGREES BUT IT WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST SLOWLY CREEPS EAST. ONCE AGAIN EXPECT LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE UNSEASONABLY MILD AS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A SHARP UPPER TROF W OF THE AREA W/ A STRONG BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE TO OUR E W/ A SHARP SLOW-MOVG SFC COLD FRONT XTNDG N-S ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PD SAT AM... THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONT A SLOW EWRD PROGRESSION W/ PRECIP AHEAD OF THIS BNDRY ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE FA SAT AM EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY ERLY SAT AFTN. THIS BNDRY IS FCST TO BECOME MOSTLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE SAT/SAT NGT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU SUN AS THE UPPER TROF HAS A TUF TIME MAKING MUCH ERN PROGRESS W/ THE STRONG BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE TO THE E OF THE AREA AND BEGINS TO TRANSITION INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW SW OF THE AREA. THIS PROCESS WILL HAVE IMPORTANT RAMIFICATIONS ON THE LONGER RANGE WX PTRN FOR THE AREA AND THIS IS DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE LONG TERM PD WHICH FOLLOWS. TEMPS SAT WILL REMAIN A LITTLE ABV SEASONAL NORMS BUT COOLER THAN TODAY W/ CLDY SKIES AND DVLPG PRECIP. COOLER AND DAMP CONDS ON SUN WILL KEEP TEMPS BACK NR SEASONAL NORMS... && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE LONGER TERM PD AS THE SHARP UPPER TROF DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABV CUTS OFF SW OF THE AREA AND THEN DRIFTS EWRD PASSING S AND THEN SE OF THE REGION THRU THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK. THIS PTRN WILL MOSTLY ALLOW OCNL SHOWERS AS WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS ROTATE CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW. BEST PRECIP CHCS AND MOST WDSPRD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ERLYR ON W/ GRADUAL DECREASE W/ TIME AS THE UPPER CUTOFF CONTS TO DRIFT SE AWAY FROM THE AREA. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DRIEST CONDS BY WED BUT THEN SUGGEST ANOTHER SHOT OF ENERGY TO DROP SEWRD INTO THE AREA AND STIR THINGS UP AGAIN BY THE END OF THE PD. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE SUPER BLEND CONSENSUS WHICH YIELD CHC/LIKELY POPS ERLY ON THEN MAINLY CHC POPS RGT THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. TEMPS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO AVG NR OR JUST A LITTLE BLO SEASONAL NORMS THRU THE PD... && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBHB WHICH MAY REMAIN IFR/MVFR INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ALL TERMINALS TO ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. SHORT TERM: GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDS W/ PREDOMINATE PDS OF MVFR INTERSPERSED BTWN OCNL PDS OF IFR AND VFR... && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AS WAVES START TO BUILD TO GREATER THAN 5 FT IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. SHORT TERM: SCA CONDS W/ MARGINAL WNDS BUT SEAS IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE SAT INTO SAT NGT IN PERSISTENT SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BLO SCA LEVELS BY LATER SUN. MOIST SRLY FLOW OVR THE COLD ATLC WATERS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG AND PSBL DRIZZLE AS WELL. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA SHORT TERM...KHW LONG TERM...KHW AVIATION...DUDA/KHW MARINE...DUDA/KHW