660 FXUS64 KCRP 060535 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1235 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014 .DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS. && .AVIATION...A LLJ AROUND 25KTS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM DVLPG...ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE VSBYS LOWER TO AROUND 4-5SM BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND HAVE TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR BRIEF CIGS TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM MID MORNING THROUGH TUE EVENING. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MID MORNING WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 21-28KTS THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2014/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION. AVIATION...VFR FOR THIS EVENING AND THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AFTER 1 OR 2 AM MAY SEE SOME LOW STRATUS STARTING TO DEVELOP. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS AT THE SURFACE AT ALL TERMINALS ASSOCIATED WITH A 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 925MB. QUITE DRY AIR MASS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL GENERALLY LIMIT CLOUD COVER AS WELL... THOUGH HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR/BORDERLINE IFR CEILINGS AT ALL FOUR TAF SITES DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW STRATUS THICKENING UP ENOUGH TO IMPACT OPERATIONS. BY SUNRISE...EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS AND VFR SKIES. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2014/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...CLOUDS RETURN AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WARM...AS MOISTURE RETURNS AND WINDS STAY UP. 850MB TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM. IN SHORT...WARMER AND MORE HUMID OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HUMID AFTERNOONS TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. ONLY MAIN ISSUE ARE RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CONVECTION COMING OFF THE SIERRA MADRE AND MOVING TOWARD RIO GRANDE. SYNOPTIC MODELS BRING SOME CONVECTION NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT OUT OF THE CWFA. TTU 4KM MODEL AT 06Z AND 12Z IS CONSISTENTLY SHOWING CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND DISSIPATING INTO WEBB COUNTY AND POSSIBLY LA SALLE COUNTY. HAVE DECIDED TO PUT 20 POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF WEBB COUNTY AND BRUSH WESTERN LA SALLE COUNTY FROM 05Z (MIDNIGHT) TIL 12Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE CONTINUED DRY...WITH ANY POP CHANCES FARTHER EAST IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA OVER THE SOUTHERN NEARSHORE WATERS...SO HAVE ISSUED A SCA FOR TONIGHT 9 PM THROUGH 9 AM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT TO 20 NM OFFSHORE. OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW CRITERION. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NOT MANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO PULL THE UPPER TROUGH A BIT FARTHER TO THE NORTH...HOWEVER MULTIPLE BOUTS OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A SW-NE TREK ACROSS THE CWA. CONVECTION STILL EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE WITH EASTWARD MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WESTERN CWA WEDNESDAY. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTN/EVNG HOURS FOR THIS AREA WITH CHANCES EXPECTED TO DROP IN THE LATE EVNG DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS AN E-NE MOVEMENT HEADING INTO THURSDAY NUDGING THE SURFACE LOW TO THE NE AS WELL. MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AS THE UPPER JET SAGS FARTHER SOUTH PULLING IN MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC. AT THE SURFACE...MOISTURE INCREASES AS WELL DUE TO PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SFC BASED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING UNDERNEATH THE STRONG CAP...HOWEVER CONVECTION ALOFT WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR THUNDER TO OCCUR. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THURSDAY...WITH 40% INTO THE AFTN ALONG THE DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE. CONTINUED THIS INTO FRIDAY AS THE CAP WEAKENS. WITH THE DIFFLUENT FLOW...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THROUGHOUT SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE REGION AND UPPER RIDGING BEGINS. QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PERSISTENTLY ON THE WARM SIDE...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 80 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 72 88 73 85 74 / 10 10 20 20 30 VICTORIA 69 87 72 87 72 / 10 10 20 30 40 LAREDO 74 97 75 97 75 / 10 20 20 30 20 ALICE 71 90 72 90 73 / 10 10 20 30 40 ROCKPORT 73 83 73 81 74 / 10 10 20 20 20 COTULLA 70 92 73 92 73 / 10 20 20 30 30 KINGSVILLE 71 89 73 88 74 / 10 10 20 20 30 NAVY CORPUS 72 84 73 82 74 / 10 10 20 20 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM. && $$ TE/81...AVIATION