021 FXUS62 KMHX 042144 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 544 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY AND EXTENDS OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 540 PM SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING AS FORECAST AND HAS PASSED THROUGH NORTHERN VIRGINIA LATE TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC A WARM AND BREEZY SW FLOW WAS OCCURRING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. SOME PATCHY MID CLOUDS UPSTREAM MAY TRAVERSE THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING BUT THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE INFLOW SHOULD KEEP THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY ACROSS EASTERN NC. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL MIXING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...PER MODEL TIME SECTIONS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MAINLY ABOVE 500 MB DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NE UNTIL VEER TO S/SW AND INCREASING LATE IN THE DAY. WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS...WILL KEEP MONDAY DRY AS THE MAIN THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. WITH THE FRONT BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY OVER A PORTION OF OUR SOUTHERN CWA...EXPECT A GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TOMORROW WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN THE LOW 60S OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS RANGING TO THE LOWER 80S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 125 PM SUN...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ASSOCIATED SURFACE INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE. MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT AM CARRYING A LOW CHANCE POP IN THE GRIDS. FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN. EAST AND NORTHEAST WIND WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES...KEEPING THEM IN THE 70S MID WEEK. AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE THURSDAY...SURFACE FLOW WILL AGAIN BECOME SOUTHERLY UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL HELP BRING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. SOME DISAGREEMENT STARTS BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD. ECMWF GETS EXCITED ABOUT A SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS...WHICH SUBSEQUENTLY RIDES UP OVER THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER FLOW DEPICTED BY ECMWF INDICATING AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE DAMPENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ECMWF HOLDS OFF ON ANY PRECIP UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE GFS HAS SOME SMALL CHANCES STARTING SATURDAY. HPC GRIDS A LITTLE WETTER THAN ECMWF/GFSENS PROGS FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/... AS OF 540 PM SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO PATCHY MID CLOUDS LATE THUS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS EARLY MONDAY. CURRENT GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NE. THERESE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST EARLY MONDAY THEN SOUTH LATE. LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 138 PM SUN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SOME PATCHY PRE-DAWN FOG POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/... AS OF 540 PM SUNDAY...WITH BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 06Z AND 09Z TONIGHT...WILL KEEP SCA IN PLACE FOR THE WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH. THE SCA WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT DO EXPECT TO SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AND PER LOCAL SWAN/NWPS MODEL...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW BRIEF SPOTS OF 6 FOOT SEAS OVER THE SCA AREA LATE TONIGHT. SOME CONCERN THAT BRIEF ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE REACHED ON THE PAMLICO SOUND FOR A BRIEF (LESS THAN A 3 HOUR) PERIOD LATE TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS EARLY MONDAY SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NE/E AND DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY MIDDAY BEFORE BECOMING S/SW LATE MONDAY. SEAS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY RUN 3 TO 5 FEET. LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... S OF 144 PM SUN...A FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT. SURFACE WAVE ALONG FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WATERS ON TUESDAY. GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND WAVE WILL TIGHTEN...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOOSE ENOUGH FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT SEAS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 4 TO 5 FEET...MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL WATERS. FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH EAST AND NORTHEAST SUB SCA WINDS OVER THE WATERS. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA MOVES EAST TO OVER THE OCEAN. A SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER THE WATERS. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO NEAR SCA SPEEDS ON FRIDAY. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC NEAR TERM...CTC/JME SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...CGG AVIATION...CGG/CTC/JME/BM MARINE...CGG/CTC/JME