151 
FXUS64 KLZK 040147 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
847 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
NORTH TONIGHT... BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY... AND WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE... THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE CONCERNS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014/ 

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS DEPARTED TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND ALL CLOUDS HAVE REMAINED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS 
THE AREA AND USHER IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST 
AREA. DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH 
BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. LOWER DEW POINTS AND STRONG WINDS WILL 
ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING TO OCCUR AND TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 
DEGREES ON SUNDAY. WITH STRONG WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST CENTRAL...DID GO AHEAD AN ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
SUNDAY. 

LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND 
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE. AS A RESULT...CLOUDS 
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL 
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS DRY AND WARM WITH THE UPPER RIDGE STILL 
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN. BUT THEN IT 
TRANSITIONS TO A MUCH WETTER PATTERN AS A SURFACE AND UPPER SYSTEMS 
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY AND WARM WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING 
MOISTURE INTO AR WITH A SOUTH WIND FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S. 

ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES MORE EAST...AND ALLOWS SOME 
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO MOVE OVER AR...HENCE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS 
BACK IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S. THURSDAY 
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE DEVELOPING SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO 
AR...AND WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY...MORE CONVECTION IS 
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS 
MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT TO 
SATURDAY...THE SURFACE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO AND 
THROUGH AR...WHILE THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NE. ENERGY IS SEEN IN THE 
UPPER SW FLOW...BUT AT THIS TIME...ONLY ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE IS 
EXPECTED. THIS UPPER SYSTEM IS NOT AS STRONG AS RECENT STORM 
SYSTEMS. ON SATURDAY...THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE 
FORECAST...BUT THE MAIN AREA DOES GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF AR. HOWEVER 
FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE STALLING OF THE BOUNDARY 
OVER SE AR...WHILE UPPER W TO SW FLOW COULD BE SEEN MOVING OVER AR 
AND SOME CONVECTION WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. THE DEEP UPPER 
TROUGH DOES REMAIN WEST OF AR. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW 
THIS FAR OUT...BUT SCENARIO WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
HAS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE.  
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR BAXTER-
BOONE-CLEBURNE-FAULKNER-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-NEWTON-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN 
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

&&

$$

58/EF