080 FXUS61 KBGM 030649 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 249 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS... RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM, THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 130 AM UPDATE... CLD CVR EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE TDA AS UPR LVL TROF RMNS ANCHORED BACK TO OUR WEST. AS IS TYPICAL IN THESE CASES, MAY SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT OVERALL A MOCLDY DAY EXPECTED. MIXING EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS H8 WITH MAX TEMPS TOPPING OUT RIGHT ARND 60F WHICH WL BE A FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL VALUES. ELONGATED TROF OF LOPRES EXTENDS FM HUDSON BAY SWRD INTO SRN WISCONSIN WITH BNDRY DRAPED ALONG THE MID-MS RVR VLY. THIS AREA OF LOPRES WL MV EAST TDA TWD AREA OF GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS. H5 S/WV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR INDIANA WL EJECT NEWD TWD FA THIS AFTN AND BRING LIFT TO THE AREA RESULTING IN AREA OF LKLY POPS FOR CNY ZONES MID-LATE AFTN. COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WITH THIS WV WL BRING A SLGT CHC FOR THUNDER TO CWA AFT 18Z WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 100-200 J/KG PER NAM AND GFS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... 300 PM EDT UPDATE... SAT MORNING IS WHEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL KEEP US TRAPPED UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. UNDER THIS FLOW RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY EACH DAY. EXPECT TO REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NW FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS WE TRANSITION TO THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPR LVL LOW. A STRONG WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS THIS TAKE PLACE AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY SUN MORNING/AFTERNOON. A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY MORNING A SFC RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT A MORE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE QUIET. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REGION SUN AND MON MORNING. PRECAUTIONS FOR SENSITIVE PLANTS MAY BE NEEDED ON SUN AND MON AS FROST MAY OCCUR. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 250 AM UPDATE...MINOR TWEEKS TO CRNT MED RNG FCST BASED ON LATEST HPC GUIDANCE. GIST OF FCST REMAINS THE SAME. PREV BLO... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INITIALLY HIGH PRESS BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL BRING DRY WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL BRING A WARM FRONT IN THE VCNTY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD FOR RAIN SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS MRNG INTO THE AFTN HRS ACRS THE CWA WITH A BKN-OVC MID DECK. SCT -SHRA WILL WORK INTO THE REGION LATE THIS MRNG/EARLY AFTN WHICH WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT SYR/RME BUT DO NOT EXPECT RESTRICTIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ONCE THE CDFNT PASSES THIS EVNG WITH A ROUND OF SHRA...XPCT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL IN THE WRLY FLOW ACRS CNTRL NY...MAINLY AT ITH/BGM/SYR AND RME. WINDS TDA SWLY INCRSNG TO 10-15 KTS...WITH G20 PSBL AT ELM/BGM/AVP WHERE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE MOST LIKELY TDA...BECMG WRLY 10-20 KTS POST FROPA THIS EVNG. OUTLOOK... SUN...POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHOWERS. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KAH NEAR TERM...PVN SHORT TERM...KAH LONG TERM...RRM AVIATION...