275 FXUS64 KHGX 021512 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1012 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014 .UPDATE... THE 5H TROUGH AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE STATE...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OR TWO RIDING UP AHEAD OF IT ACROSS EAST TEXAS...HAS MADE FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING WITH VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION/VIRGA MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF JACKSON AND COLORADO. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EAST THROUGH THE DAY...ANTICIPATING THINNING CLOUDS FROM NORTH-SOUTH TO EVENTUAL MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. A FEW SPITS OR A VERY BRIEF LIGHT AFTERNOON SHOWER ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. CLEARING SKIES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA WILL AID IN MIXING DOWN LOWER DEW POINT AIR...TRANSLATING TO ANOTHER COMFORTABLE AND MILD DAY. ALTHOUGH MANY WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS AVERAGE INLAND TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S...MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE COAST...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZE. 31 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014/ DISCUSSION... SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. AVIATION... LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT GENERATING MUCH PRECIP WITH THIS BUT WATER VAPOR SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA. NAM 12 VERTICAL CIRCULATION DOES HAVE SOME POCKETS OF LIFT THIS MORNING SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE COAST. OTHERWISE NO ISSUES EXPECTED. 23 && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2014/ DISCUSSION... SURFACE RIDGE FROM WEST TEXAS INTO THE COASTAL BEND WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT TODAY BUT S/W COMING IN FROM THE SW WILL LEAD TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES TODAY. SOUNDINGS AT CRP AND AMDAR INTO HOUSTON AREA ALL SHOWING MOISTENING ABOVE 10000FT AND CRP/DRT RADARS SHOWING AN AREA OF ELEVATED STRATIFORM RAIN SPREADING INTO THE COASTAL BEND AREA BRINGING ONLY LIGHT RAIN THANKS TO THE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST TODAY EXPECT THAT LIGHT RAINS SHOULD SHIFT UP THE COAST AND INTO THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE NW LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS STRONG PVA OCCURS OVER THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE GULF WATERS SATURDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO WARM WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS (AND DRIER) FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE LL. UPPER RIDGING TAKES HOLD AND NW TO W FLOW ALOFT REMAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL PATTERN OF CLOUDS AND WARMER WITH SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURNING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM NW TO SW. OF COURSE THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION WITH THE NEXT DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S./MEXICO SO WILL CARRY 20 POPS THUR-SAT BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY NEED NUDGING UPWARDS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE STATE. IN GENERAL HAVE TRENDED THE AFTERNOON HIGHS UP A DEGREE NEXT WEEK FOR NOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THE SHORT TERM AND ALSO FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AS CI SHOULD RETURN. 45 && MARINE... VERY WEAK BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. 23 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 79 51 87 58 86 / 20 10 10 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 79 55 87 59 85 / 20 10 10 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 76 64 82 69 81 / 20 10 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...31/43