241 FXUS61 KBGM 232242 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 642 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY AS COLD AND DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE WILL BE TIGHT OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AGAIN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 640 PM UPDATE...CLEARING SKIES WORKING INTO THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. RESIDUAL SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OVER THE SUSQ RGN AND WRN CATSKILLS ARE DSPTNG. EROSION OF CLDS MAY SLOW ACRS CNTRL NY THIS EVNG...BUT OVERALL CLEARING SKIES WILL BE THE TREND. MINOR TWEEKS TO CRNT FCST. PREV BLO... 230 PM EDT UPDATE... SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS NY AND PA AS EXPECTED. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. PREVIOUS FORECAST... 1100 AM EDT UPDATE... THE UPPR LVL SHORT WAVE HAS NOW MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING... AND AS A RESULT THE LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT THE DRY AIR TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC... THE UPPR LVL ATTENDANT SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MAINE AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SFC LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN THE MSLP TIGHTENING OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY LATE TONIGHT. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE TRUE DRY AIR TO MOVE IN. TONIGHT... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE BREEZY AS THE MSLP WILL STILL KEEP TIGHT AND DUE TO CAA THE 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR -6 C. THE DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY EARLY EVENING. THE MENTIONED ABOVE COMBINATION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BECOME QUITE CHILLY FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S TO MID 20S. THURSDAY MORNING WILL START CHILLY AND DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT START TO QUICKLY WARM IN THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY. OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THE WINDS WILL START TO WEAKEN AS THE SFC RIDGE WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST... HOWEVER WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN BREEZY WELL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION MAY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FORE MORE INFORMATION ON FIRE WEATHER PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 230 PM EDT UPDATE... THURS NIGHT THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST AND DOMINATE THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN RESULTING IN A QUITE A NICE EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A SFC LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW WITH NW SFC FLOW THROUGH SAT... RESULTING IN THE CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWER POST FRONT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 315 PM WED UPDATE... OUR NWP SUITE HAS REACHED A DECENT CONSENSUS WITH TDY'S 12Z RUN IN THE MED RNG PD...AT LEAST IN THE BIG PICTURE. ON THE LARGE-SCALE...AMPLIFIED UPR-LVL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO EXPAND FROM CNTRL CANADA NEWD TWDS GREENLAND...WITH A LARGE...SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW FORMING UNDERNEATH THIS BLOCKING RIDGE...AND TAKING UP RESIDENCE SOMEWHERE OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE DEVIL...OF COURSE...WILL BE IN THE DETAILS...WITH THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THIS UPPER LOW DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE WX. ALTHOUGH...AS MENTIONED ABV...LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY GOOD...THE EC APPEARS TO BE FARTHER W WITH THE POSITION OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW (MS VLY) NEXT WEEK...VERSUS THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS (OH VLY OR MID-ATL RGN). FOR NOW...WPC APPEARS TO BE LEANING TWDS THE GFS...AND THUS SO WILL WE. AS A RESULT...WE'LL FIRST BRING IN A CHC OF SHWRS LATE MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH PCPN CHANCES THEN LINGERING FOR THE REST OF THE PD. IF THE EC SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING MORE CORRECT...THEN PCPN COULD HOLD OFF LONGER (PERHAPS TWDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK). TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BLO CLIMO FOR LATE APR (HIGHS IN THE 50S-MID 60S). && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 18Z WED UPDATE... AT LEAST OCNL IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTN AT KITH/KBGM...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS ELSEWHERE. THIS EVE (02-04Z)...DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE RGN FROM THE W...WITH CLEARING SKIES...AND A RETURN TO VFR RGN- WIDE. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT LTR THIS EVE (02-04Z)...BEFORE PICKING UP...AND BCMG GUSTY AGN THU MRNG (AFTER 12-13Z). OUTLOOK... THU INTO FRI...VFR. LTR FRI INTO SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN -SHRA. LTR SAT THROUGH MUCH OF MON...VFR. && .FIRE WEATHER... 230 PM EDT UPDATE... LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END TODAY AS DRY AIR IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO TAKE GRIP OF THE REGION. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AND MAY PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY FALL AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT REASON. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ENDING THE CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT EVENING. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072. NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NYZ045-046-056-057-062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KAH NEAR TERM...KAH SHORT TERM...KAH LONG TERM...MLJ AVIATION...MLJ FIRE WEATHER...