880 FXUS63 KPAH 191151 AFDPAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 651 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014 .UPDATE... Issued at 651 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014 Updated aviation section for 12z TAF package. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night) Issued at 306 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014 Models show an upper level ridge building over the Central Plains, sliding east across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys late today into Sunday. This will keep conditions dry and mild across the region through the weekend. Winds will shift back to the south on Sunday, helping temperatures climb into the upper 70s. Clouds will increase Sunday night ahead of our next weather system. Models in are good agreement on timing of moving a cold front across the PAH forecast area Monday into Monday night. Precipitation chances will move into mainly western portions of the area by 18z Monday, and went with chance pops across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. ECMWF generates some light QPF farther east than GFS and NAM, so included slight chance pops across the rest of the fa. Chances will increase through the day, with good chance pops across all but our far east counties Monday afternoon, and across the entire area Monday night. GFS and NAM both generate some CAPE across the entire region Monday and Monday night, with LI's of -1 to -3 through the day Monday, so continued to include slight chances of thunderstorms. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 306 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014 The extended forecast period appears to be fairly quiet early on...but the signal for precipitation looks to be fairly strong for Thursday night through Friday. In the meantime, we will see a front exiting the area on Tuesday. There is a small possibility of lingering POPS in western KY early Tuesday morning as the front exits. Although we might see a few degree cool down behind this front...it still looks like highs in the lower 70s will be likely on Tuesday. An upper level ridge will start to build into the region late Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure at the sfc will allow for winds to be easterly which will keep us in the low 70s. Our warm up will occur on Thursday when winds become southerly as the sfc high moves east. In fact, winds will likely become rather gusty. Meanwhile, we will be watching a cold front advancing from the west. Models indicate that most of the area should probably stay dry on Thursday. If precipitation occurs, it would be most likely across our western fringes. However, the 00Z and 12Z ECMWF are in very good agreement that the best chances for precipitation will be Thursday evening/overnight and into Friday. GFS ensembles also support this timing. However, the 00Z ECMWF came in with a lot less QPF and much faster with timing. Therefore, will not get too carried away with POPS since this system is still not totally resolved well by the models. But, looking back on several runs of the GFS, it does seem to be the most consistent at this time. Precipitation should be exiting the area late in the day on Friday...which will make for dry conditions for Friday night into Saturday. && .AVIATION... Issued at 651 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with just occasional high clouds, and FEW040 cumulus possible this afternoon. Winds will be from the northeast at 5 to 10 kts, decreasing to 4 kts or less after 00z. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RST LONG TERM...CW AVIATION...RST