890 FXUS61 KBGM 130728 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 328 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING. A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 70S TODAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY PROVIDING A SOAKING RAIN. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 330 AM UPDATE... WMFNT WL LIFT THRU CWA THIS MRNG, LVG AREA IN WARM SECTOR AND SWRLY FLOW. LGT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED ACRS NRN ZONES THIS MRNG WL LIFT NORTH AS BNDRY LIFTS THRU THE REGION. CLDS WL GRADUALLY BE ON THE DECREASE BUT WITH AREA IN INCRSG MID-LVL MOISTURE RIDING NORTH EXPECT CUMULUS TO DVLP AND RESULT IN PCLDY CONDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. H8 TEMPS CLIMBING TO +12C EXPECTED TO YIELD ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY. HIGH TEMPS WL BE SVRL DEGREES WARMER THAN YDA WITH L/M 70S COMMON ACRS THE AREA - NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES ABV NORMAL. WARM SW FLOW WL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS CWA RMNS LOCKED INTO WM SECTOR. BY 12Z MONDAY EXPECT CDFNT TO BE LOCATED IN VICINITY OF THE THUMB OF LWR MICHIGAN AND SLIDING EAST. GOM WL BE WIDE OPEN TONIGHT WITH H8 WINDS DRAWING IN PW VALUES APPCHG 1 INCH BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS IS ALREADY 1-2 SD ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YR. DWPT VALUES WL INCREASE INTO THE 50S TONIGHT WITH OVRNGT LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-50S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 330 AM UPDATE... FRONT WL APPCH EVER CLOSER DRG THE DAY MONDAY, BUT STILL RMN FAR ENUF TO THE WEST THAT PCPN WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO MV INTO CWA MUCH BFR 21Z. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO WL OCCUR AFT 18Z AS LEAD S/WV TRACKS THRU THE AREA BUT BEST FRCG LOOKS TO BE ALONG FRONT TWD 00Z. HV BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH POPS FOR MON AFTN TO ACCNT FOR SLOWER MVMNT OF CDFNT PER 00Z NAM AND EC. INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO INCRS ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED EARLY THAN GIVING WAY TO ISOLD CONVECTION BY LATE AFTN. GIVEN INCRSG MOISTURE ALONG WITH CLDS HV DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO BUT STILL RANGING IN THE LWR TO UPR 70S. AN 80-DEGREE READING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FROPA EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SOMETIME TUE MRNG, THUS HV BUMPED TEMPS AND DWPT VALUES UP FOR MON NGT. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BE LOCKED INTO SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER AFTER 06Z. MED RANGE MODELS GIVING SOME INDICATION OF LIGHTER PCPN OCCURRING IN SHADOWING AFFECTS IN SRLY FLOW ACRS CNTR SXN OF CWA TWD 12Z. THUS, EXPECT HIGHER QPF AMNTS BTWN 06Z AND 12Z TUE ACRS NW ZONES AND TERRAIN AREAS OF SERN ZONES. FROPA NOW EXPECTED TO HAPPEN DRG THE DAY ON TUE WITH RAINY DAY EXPECTED. HEAVIEST PCPN LOOKS TO FALL DRG THE MAIN PART OF THE DAY WITH STORM-TOTAL QPF AMNTS BTWN 12Z TUE-00Z WED ARND 1 INCH. THIS WL BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH RRQ OF 250MB JET STREAK LEADING TO STRONG FRCG OVR MOST OF CWA DRG THE DAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL DRG THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS OCCURRING AT DAYBREAK ACRS NRN ZONES, MID-MRNG OVR CNTRL SXNS AND EARLY AFTN ACRS NEPA. HV SIDED WITH NON-DIURNAL TREND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE AS THEY SEEM TO BE MOST REASONABLE. 00Z EURO LOOKS WAY TOO COLD FOR TEMPS ON TUE WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE BY 00Z WED. TUE NGT EXPECTED TO BE VRY CLD WITH LOWS ULTIMATELY DROPPING INTO THE 20S AND POSSIBLY TEENS OVR NRN ONEIDA CNTY. ANY LINGERING PCPN WL MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHG TO SNOW DRG THE OVRNGT WITH ONLY A DUSTING EXPECTED OVR HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN CATS. SFC HIPRES QUICKLY BUILDS IN AFT 06Z. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NO SIG CHGS TO THE MED RNG FCST. EARLY WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING ON TUE NGT...WITH LINGERING CHCS FOR -SHSN MAINLY IN THE EVNG...AND THE PSBLTY OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT ACRS OUR NRN ZONES. BY WED...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN...SLIDING OFF THE CST BY FRI. GNRLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER XPCTD DURING THIS PD. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR NXT WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL ONLY MINOR TWEEKS TO HPC GUIDANCE. PREV BLO... NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING AS MAIN ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON FROPA BEGINNING TO ENTER WESTERN ZONES BY 12Z...WITH STEADY COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. 850 TEMPS QUICKLY PLUNGE TO NEAR -10C BY 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING PRECIP LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO A RA/SN MIX BEFORE ARRIVING HIGH PRESSURE HALTS PRECIP AFTER 6Z WED. AS STATED BELOW...ONLY NOMINAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL BEYOND THIS WITH REBOUNDING TEMPS THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRAVELING ALONG A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO LGT SHWR ACTIVITY AT SYR AND RME THIS MORNING...BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AREAWIDE AFTER 14/15Z. UPSTREAM OBS SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS UNDER APPROACHING SHWRS AND ANY MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED. AS FRONT LIFTS THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS LATER TODAY UNDER STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY EARLY EVENING WITH GRADUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OUTLOOK... MON...VFR. MON NIGHT/TUE/TUE NGT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS. WED...VFR. THURS...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PVN NEAR TERM...PVN SHORT TERM...PVN LONG TERM...CMG AVIATION...CMG