742 FXUS64 KMAF 110916 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 416 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014 .DISCUSSION... The closed low off the West Coast continues to push eastward towards California and will eventually pass West Texas and Southeast New Mexico later this weekend. Mid and upper level Pacific moisture streaming into the area ahead of the low has resulted in clouds around 20-25k ft AGL this morning and we will continue to see scattered to broken mid and high clouds through the weekend. A weak cold front entered our northern counties overnight. Surface pressure rises are not impressive behind this front around 2-3 mb/3 hour. Without any real push, it will stall roughly north of I-20 today, keeping afternoon high temperatures slightly cooler in the upper 80s. Expect low 90s across lower elevations today as cloud cover will have a slight limiting effect on insolation again. Elevated to near critical fire weather concerns will continue across most of the area through the weekend with afternoon high temperatures dropping relative humidities into the single digits to teens. Winds still appear below critical levels until Sunday when a deepening lee surface trough increases wind speeds. Please see the fire weather discussion below for more information. Warm and dry conditions expected to continue through the weekend. Lee surface troughing will aid in the development of a dry line today and Saturday, which will mix to roughly a Big Spring-Crane- Sanderson line Friday and Saturday afternoons. The dry line will slosh back and forth across eastern portions of the forecast area before Sunday's system provides enough push to move it into west and north central Texas. Despite subtle passing disturbances over the area this afternoon/evening and tomorrow, the cap along the dry line is strong with 200-400 j/kg CIN and potential for convection east of the dryline in extreme eastern portions of the forecast area remain low. As the previously mentioned closed low crosses across Baja California Saturday afternoon, it will open into a shortwave trough and continue to translate across Arizona and New Mexico. High winds in the Guadalupe Mountains will be possible Saturday and Sunday as mid level winds increase ahead of this system. Both the GFS and ECMWF are about 6 hours faster with shortwave than NAM and bring the shortwave across Sunday afternoon. These timing differences appear to have little impact on the progress of Sunday night's front, however, with the front entering the Permian Basin before midnight and pushing through the entire area by midday Monday. Expect strong winds behind the cold front with widespread wind advisory conditions possible on Monday (northerly winds 25-35 mph). Blowing dust will also be a concern on Monday with these elevated wind speeds. Models attempt to break out precipitation with a secondary wave Monday evening mainly across the northern Permian Basin. Based on the track of this secondary wave and very dry forecast soundings, drier air over the forecast area looks to prevent any potential development. Cold air advection behind the front will keep temperatures much cooler Monday and Tuesday, with near freezing temperatures possible Tuesday morning as a surface high settles in over the region. While the average date of the last freeze in Midland is March 29, our latest freeze on record occurred last year on May 3. Anyone with planting interests will want to continue to monitor the forecast. Temperatures look to moderate towards the middle of next week with potentially windy conditions towards the end of next week with the passage of the next system in the Thursday/Friday timeframe. && .FIRE WEATHER... Very dry air will remain over most of the region as the dryline will be located to the east. 20ft wind speeds will be unimpressive today as a weak front moves down into the area early today and then lifts out again during the afternoon. The only area that could approach critical fire wx conditions this afternoon will be the Guadalupe Mtns. Will issue a Fire Danger Statement for there today. Conditions will remain very dry across the area Saturday and a developing surface trough across the area will result in an increasing southwest wind over the area. Southeast NM... the Guadalupe Mtns and Van Horn may reach critical fire wx conditions Saturday... will continue the Fire Weather Watch. These dry and windy conditions will be possible again Sunday across a larger area and another Fire Wx Watch may be necessary. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ANDREWS TX 89 58 90 60 / 0 0 10 10 BIG SPRING TX 88 60 92 64 / 0 0 10 10 CARLSBAD NM 91 58 90 56 / 0 0 10 10 DRYDEN TX 95 61 91 66 / 0 0 0 10 FORT STOCKTON TX 94 60 92 59 / 0 0 10 10 GUADALUPE PASS TX 82 59 82 54 / 0 0 0 10 HOBBS NM 89 55 87 52 / 0 0 0 10 MARFA TX 82 50 83 52 / 0 0 0 10 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 92 60 90 62 / 0 0 10 10 ODESSA TX 90 60 89 64 / 0 0 10 10 WINK TX 94 57 94 60 / 0 0 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ. TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains... Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. && $$ 72/13