278 FXUS61 KRLX 050551 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 144 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD AIR ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS LINGER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY AND LINGERS INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSES MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... COLD FRONT IS EXITING THE AREA TO THE WEST. TIGHT GRADIENTS SUGGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE SO HAVE KEPT STRONG WINDS AND FAIRLY HIGH WIND GUSTS IN THE FORECAST. CAA WILL HERALD IN COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DIPPING BELOW FREEZING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IN THE 40S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIE DOWN BY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE GRADIENTS RELAX. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH AN INFLUX OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ON SUNDAY. WENT TOWARD THE COOLER MAV FOR LOWS IN THE OUTLYING AREAS AND TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. TEMPS REBOUND NICELY ON SUNDAY AIDED ON STRENGTHENING SE DOWNSLOPING FLOW. WILL BE TRACKING ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF SW CONUS TO PHASE WITH N STREAM ENERGY TO FORM A FORMIDABLE SYSTEM TO CONTEND WITH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO TRACK FROM N GULF OF MEXICO TO JUST W OF CWA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR QUITE THE TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF VIA A STOUT LLJ WITH IMPRESSIVE LIFT ALONG WARM FRONT AS IT CROSSES EARLY MONDAY. AS SUCH HAVE CODED UP SOME ACE POPS WITH SLUG OF MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF WARM FRONT. MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A SHADOW EFFECT GIVEN STRONG SE DOWNSLOPING FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WITH QPF MAXES OVER C OH AND BANKED UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS IN THE PIEDMONT TO OUR E. ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER. FOLLOWING WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...AREA BRIEFLY RESIDES IN WARM SECTOR WITH RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP UNTIL SURFACE LOW GETS CLOSER AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT. HAVE COLD FRONT INTO C PORTIONS OF CWA BY 00Z TUESDAY WITH A BAND OF LIKELY POPS ALONG IT AND SMALL THUNDER CHANCE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...COLD FRONT...AND ATTENDING NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE LIFTS THRU THE AREA EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...TAKING THE BULK OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE COLD ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTED SURFACE LOW. OF COURSE...THE MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS. MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES... WITH JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT TO CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THINGS RAPIDLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BUT STILL ON THE COOL SIDE. RAPID WARMING THURSDAY ON GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... IN THE LOW LEVEL COOL POOL UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION EXPECT WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AROUND 3 THSD FT...WITH 1 TO 2 THSD FT OVER THE HIGH WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. WITH GRADUAL WARMING ALOFT AND MIXING...EXPECT CLOUDS BECOMING MAINLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN AT 3 TO 4 THSD FT AGL FOR 18Z TODAY TO 21Z SUNDAY...THEN MAINLY CLEAR BY 00Z SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE THINNING AND BREAK UP OF THE STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 04/05/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M L L H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN ON MONDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG EASTERN SLOPES AND OHIO RIVER COUNTIES ON WEST. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/30/LS NEAR TERM...LS SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...KTB/LS