667 
FXUS65 KVEF 282248 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
248 PM PDT FRI MAR 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED 
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH 
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WITH IT 
INCREASING CLOUDS...WIND...AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE 
SIERRA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER STORM 
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. 
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS 
TEMPORARILY BUILT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT A TRANSITION 
TO WINDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TOMORROW. THIS MORNINGS 
HIGH RESOLUTION WIND GUIDANCE ACTUALLY BEGINS TO PICK WINDS UP 
ACROSS THE SIERRA LATE TONIGHT TO THE 40-50 MPH RANGE WHICH HAS 
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY BEGINNING TONIGHT ACROSS 
THAT ZONE. WINDS ACROSS THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND LAS VEGAS VALLEY 
WILL PICK UP BY LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES 
ITS APPROACH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL 
GUIDANCE DEVELOPS RATHER STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACROSS SPRING 
MOUNTAINS AND LAS VEGAS VALLEY (SPECIFICALLY THE WESTERN AND 
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY) BY LATE EVENING SATURDAY AND 
PEAKING EARLY SUNDAY. THIS POSSIBILITY HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF 
A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THAT TIMEFRAME.  IN ADDITION TO THE 
WINDS...DUSTY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF DESERT 
ZONES. 

RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST AREA AS 
THE FRONT IMPACTS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PRECIP IS 
FIRST EXPECTED ACROSS THE SIERRA WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF 
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY ABOVE 9KT. MULLED OVER THE POSSIBILITY 
OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE 7-9K FT ELEVATIONS BUT SNOW 
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS IN THOSE 
ELEVATIONS AT THIS TIME.  WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS 
EXPECTED ACROSS LINCOLN...NYE...AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES IN ADDITION 
TO THE SIERRA. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS THE FRONT PASSES 
THROUGH AS WELL BUT IT WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE.   AS THE SYSTEM 
DEPARTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRYING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST ARE 
EXPECTED WITH WINDS EASING BY LATE SUNDAY. 

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE 
INHERITED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE 
WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH IS 
EXPECTED TO BRING WINDY...MUCH COOLER...AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FROM 
LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A 130KT+ JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF 
THE TROUGH MONDAY EVENING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE 
SIERRA AND SPRING MOUNTAINS AND POTENTIALLY CREATE DOWNSLOPE WIND 
CONDITIONS INTO THE OWENS AND LAS VEGAS VALLEYS. LATEST HIGH-RES 
GUIDANCE HASN'T CHANGED THE THINKING MUCH WITH THESE WINDS AND 
HIGHLIGHTS ARE LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE PERIOD FROM AT LEAST MONDAY 
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO 
BEGIN IN THE SIERRA AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING...SPREADING EAST BY 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO 
WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD AND EAST OF THE 
AREA. EVEN WITH THE RELATIVELY COLD CORE OF THE LOW AND SOME 
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO 
GENERATE HIGH PRECIPITATION TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...BY 
WEDNESDAY SNOW LEVELS COULD PLUMMET TO 4500-5000 FEET AS 700MB 
TEMPERATURE REACH AS LOW AS -8 TO EVEN -10 DEGREES CELSIUS IF YOU 
BELIEVE THE ECMWF. THIS COULD CREATE SOME VISIBILITY PROBLEMS IN THE 
HIGHER TERRAIN IF THERE ARE INDEED ANY LINGERING SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL FALL FROM NEAR NORMAL MONDAY TO 
6-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE FORECAST BECOMES SOMEWHAT MUDDLED BEYOND WEDNESDAY. CONSENSUS 
SHOWS AT LEAST A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY 
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY OR THE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY LESS 
THAN 7 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DIURNAL SOUTH WINDS 
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THEN 
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF 
AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE 
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR 
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 KTS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH MECHANICAL TURBULENCE IN THE LEE 
OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST 
CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS 
MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT BEFORE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE 
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE 
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS OF 20 TO 
30 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&


.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NV...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 5 PM  PDT SATURDAY UNTIL 11 AM SUNDAY      
     FOR NVZ019-020.
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING UNTIL 11 AM SUNDAY    
     FOR CAZ519.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...OUTLER
LONG TERM...WOLCOTT
AVIATION...ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER