695 FXUS61 KCTP 282000 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 400 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS PRECEDING THE FRONT. A SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE DELMARVA REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA...WITH MORE THAN AN INCH LIKELY TO FALL IN THE EAST. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AT THE END OF THE RAIN SUNDAY. MILDER TEMPERATURES BUT CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT IS YET TO ENTER WESTERN PA WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS NRN SECTIONS. SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY CLOUD AT THIS POINT AS ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CLOUD AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM BE ADVANCING ON THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SFC LOW WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC/DELMARVA ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGGING AS IT PRESSES THROUGH THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS. GOOD MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE GOMEX WILL MEET IT/S TERMINUS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE FAST FORWARD SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM MAY BE VERY GOOD NEWS...AS ABNORMALLY HIGH PWATS ABOVE AN INCH WILL EXIST. QPF IS PEGGED TO BE IN THE 0.75-1.5 INCH RANGE BY ALL OPRL MDLS AND THE SREF MEANS AND MEDIANS. THE HEAVIER END OF THE NUMBERS ARE RIGHT NOW SLATED TO BE TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHERN/WESTERN MOUNTAINS. BUT THEY WILL HAVE THEIR OWN TRICK IN THE FORECAST. THE TEMPERATURES DROP AS THE RAIN BEGINS AND THROUGH THE DAY/EVENING - ESPECIALLY ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS...THE TIMING OF WHICH WILL DICTATE THE AMOUNT OF SNOW WHICH MAY FALL. FOR NOW...THE 1-2 INCHES IN THE GRIDS ALREADY IS REASONABLE...AND WILL LEAVE ALONE. TEMPS WILL BE KEPT DOWN FROM MOS GUID ON SAT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THIS WEEKEND/S STORM...RESULTING IN LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE EAST FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW OVER THE NORTH AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AT THIS POINT...MONDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE BEST DAYS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE...FAIR SKIES...AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE NORTH OF THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CLOUDS TO THE REGION. LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE NORTH AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SUNSHINE WILL MAKE A BRIEF RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE MIDWEST...AND MOVE EAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS STILL A GOOD BIT OF MODEL SPREAD...BUT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NOSES INTO PENNSYLVANIA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING MORE RAIN. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MVFR CIGS AT THE CORNERS AT BFD AND LNS WHERE LOW CLOUDS AIDED BY APPROACHING AND DEPARTING PCPN ARE PRODUCING RESTRICTIONS. CONDS OVER LOWER SUSQ...LNS...SHOULD BE IMPROVING...WHILE THOSE IN THE NW...BFD...WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT. MAINTAINED LLWS IN BFD AND JST TAFS WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TURBULENCE RECEIVED DURING THE DAY TODAY. MDL DATA INDICATES THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL CLIP NW PA...KCCX VAD WIND PROFILER DATA SHOW A SWRLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SOME MODEST IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THIS TOWARD MIDNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW AND ...AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. OUTLOOK... SAT...WIDESPREAD PM RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE. SUN...WINDY. AM RAIN/LOWS CIGS POSSIBLE. MON-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED FLOOD WATCH FOR ABOUT EASTERN THIRD OF CWA STARTING NOON SAT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF AND POSSIBLY STALL ALONG MID ATLC COAST IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE MDT TO HEAVY RAINS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN PA DURING THIS PD. LOCALIZED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1- 2 INCHES SEEM REASONABLE WITH GOOD MODEL COMPROMISE OFF SFC LOW MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH PA THEN REDEVELOPING ALONG THE DELMARVA. GEFS/SREF GUIDANCE SHOWS PWAT ANOMALIES GREATER THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATES IMPINGING UPON EASTERN PA SAT AFTN AND EVENING PROVING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR PAZ028-036-037-041-042-046-049>053-056>059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/GARTNER NEAR TERM...GARTNER SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER LONG TERM...COLBERT AVIATION...GARTNER HYDROLOGY...