212 
FXUS64 KMRX 281850
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
250 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE 
ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER KY AND WEST TN...GENERALLY ALONG A 
CINCINNATI TO CLARKSVILLE TO MEMPHIS LINE. CURRENT RADARS REVEAL 
ONLY A FEW LIGHT AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH 
A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION  
CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE INFLOW INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY TODAY. AS A 
RESULT...EXPECT ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE 
EVENING HOURS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT... 
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND 
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING. 
THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD PRODUCE A GOOD 
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH 
SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF 
A COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION SHOWERS AS THE 
PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WITH A JUST CHANCE OF TSTORMS DUE TO THE 
WEAK INSTABILITY. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO FURTHER AMPLIFY ON SATURDAY 
AFTERNOON...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PRODUCING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS 
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHEAST TN. RIGHT 
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER 
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FT. AS FOR TEMPS...NAM AND GFS 
GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... 
BUT WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO WHERE SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
DOMINATE AREA WEATHER EARLY IN THE EXTENDED.  THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY 
AND WARM CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  ONLY CONCERN THIS 
PERIOD WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON 
TUESDAY.  MODELS WEAKEN THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER 
RIDGE.  EXPECT MOSTLY A FEW CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH TO BE THE MAIN 
EFFECT FROM THIS FEATURE.  MAIN SYSTEM OF CONCERN THROUGH THE 
EXTENDED WILL BE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY 
TIME FRAME.  MODELS/RUNS IN POOR AGREEMENT...ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING 
OF THIS SYSTEM.  MODELS TRENDING TOWARD THE RIDGE MAINTAINING OVER 
THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THURSDAY...ONLY ALLOWING A WEAK IMPULSE TO 
MOVE IN ON THURSDAY AND THE MAIN FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP HOLDING 
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY.  OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT HAVE TRENDED 
GRIDS TOWARDS THIS AND HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT ON THURSDAY AND 
INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FRIDAY. 
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             56  66  38  63 /  90  70  20   0 
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  53  65  36  60 /  80  90  30  10 
OAK RIDGE, TN                       53  64  36  60 /  80  90  30   0 
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              49  63  34  58 /  70 100  50  20 
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/MJB