650 
FXUS64 KCRP 281431
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
931 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR LATEST UPDATE.

&&

.MARINE...HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MARINE
AREAS...INCLUDING THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS...UNTIL NOON.
BASED ON LATEST OBS AND VIEWING VARIOUS CAMERAS ALONG THE
COASTLINE...THE SEA FOG REMAINS DENSE ACROSS THE BAYS AND
NEARSHORE WATERS. AM EXPECTING DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP IMPROVE
VISIBILITIES BY NOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014/ 

DISCUSSION...VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
COASTAL BEND THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND NEARSHORE WATERS. WILL ALLOW THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE LAND AREAS TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM AND HANDLE ANY
LOCALIZED FOG WITH NOWCASTS. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MARINE
AREAS IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHETHER THE SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE BEYOND 10 AM DUE TO HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVELY COOLER SST'S...BUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING
THE SEA FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY NOON. 

AS FOR TSRA POTENTIAL TODAY...THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWED A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BUT WITH A VERY STRONG CAP IN PLACE AND LIMITED
MOISTURE. THE VCT CROSSROADS MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
PLACE FOR CONVECTION WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
AND SFC DRYLINE...BUT THE QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE CAP WILL WEAKEN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DVLP. THERE WILL ONLY BE A SHORT WINDOW
FOR CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRYLINE AND UPPER
DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST ENDING THE RAIN CHCS.

AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...AM
STILL EXPECTING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THREAT...BUT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE IT INCREASES TO CRITICAL IF WINDS STRENGTHEN
MORE THAN ANTICIPATED. 

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL SOLNS FOR
POSSIBLE UPDATES. FOR NOW WILL ONLY UPDATE ZONES TO REMOVE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY...BUT MAY NEED TO ADJUST POPS FOR THE NE CWA AND
ADDRESS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014/ 

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...POOR FLIGHT RULES TO START THE TAF PERIOD WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THRU THE DAY. LOWEST CIGS/VSBYS AT START OF
TAF PERIOD XPCTD TO BE ACROSS KLRD AND KCRP WITH VLIFR/LIFR.
KVCT/KALI XPCTD TO START WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. CLEARING
SKIES AND IMPROVING FLIGHT RULES SHOULD OCCUR FIRST ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS A DRYLINE EMERGES FROM MEXICO.
DRYLINE IS FCST TO PROGRESS EAST THRU THE MRNG WITH ALL TERMINALS
TO RETURN TO VFR BY MIDDAY WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING FOR REMAINDER
OF TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SRLY WINDS THIS MRNG TO BECOME WNWRLY AFTER
DRYLINE PUSHES THRU...AND THEN LIGHT TO MODERATE NNERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    92  59  79  58  78  /  10  10   0  10  10 
VICTORIA          85  56  79  52  77  /  20  10   0  10  10 
LAREDO            96  62  85  58  86  /   0   0   0  10  10 
ALICE             96  56  82  56  82  /  10   0   0  10  10 
ROCKPORT          83  59  77  61  75  /  10  10   0  10  10 
COTULLA           92  55  82  54  82  /  10   0   0  10  10 
KINGSVILLE        96  58  80  57  81  /  10   0   0  10  10 
NAVY CORPUS       86  62  77  61  73  /  10  10   0  10  10 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT 
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT 
     O'CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA 
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM