568 FXUS64 KAMA 281239 AFDAMA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 739 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014 .UPDATE... MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY GRIDS TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE CLOUDS HAVE HELPED KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT. ALSO INSERTED MENTION OF SPRINKLES INTO THE ZONES AS RADAR IMAGES SHOW STRONGER ECHOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE WINDOW FOR THESE SPRINKLES WILL BE VERY SHORT AS IT HAS TAKEN FOR THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TO GET PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES JUST PRIOR TO MIDDAY AND THUS BRING AN END TO ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014/ AVIATION... FOR THE 12Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL STAY AT OR BELOW 13 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME VIRGA SHOWERS COULD GET CLOSE TO KDHT 21Z-00Z, BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND. IF ONE OF THESE SHOWERS DOES DEVELOP AND IMPACT KDHT DIRECTLY, WINDS COULD BRIEFLY GUST UP TO 35 KT. JACKSON PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014/ SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE'S GOOD NEWS AND BAD NEWS THIS MORNING. WE'LL BE POSITIVE AND START WITH THE GOOD NEWS. IT SHOULD BE A REALLY NICE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT THE ECHOES WE'VE SEEN ON RADAR THIS MORNING ARE NOTHING BUT VIRGA SHOWERS. IT MAKES YOU WONDER IF OUR ELEVATION WAS ABOUT 8,000 FEET HIGHER, HOW MUCH MORE ANNUAL RAINFALL WOULD THIS AREA AVERAGE? ANYWAY, THESE VIRGA SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATER THIS MORNING, BUT MORE HIGH-BASED VIRGA SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WE'VE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY, BUT THERE COULD SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS UNDERNEATH THE VIRGA SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S. LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY WELL...HMMM...WHAT IS THERE TO SAY. IF YOU LIKE DRY AND DUSTY WITH PERIODIC CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THEN YOU'LL LIKE THIS FORECAST. IF YOU'RE LIKE THE REST OF US THOUGH...IT'S ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING PRECIP FORECAST AS MED RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON ANY SMALL PRECIP CHANCES THIS WEEK AND WE'LL HAVE TO HOPE FOR SOMETHING TO CHANGE. ONE NICE THING FOR SPRING LOVERS IS THAT GENERALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATURDAY... SUNNY WITH A MODEST 15-25MPH BREEZE FROM THE SSW WILL BE RULE. HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL MAKE THIS A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... AN APPROACHING UPR LEVEL SHRTWV AND DEVELOPING LEE SIDE SFC LOW IN SE CO WILL HELP GENERATE STRONG WINDS TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA. EXPANSIVE HIGH CLOUDS LOOK LIKELY AND MAY TEMPER MIXING JUST A BIT. EVEN SO, HIGHS WILL LIKELY PUSH TO AROUND OR A BIT ABOVE 80F AND WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SSW AT 25-35 MPH GUSTING TO 45 MPH, KICKING UP DUST. WE'LL WATCH AN OUTSIDE THREAT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING HOURS SUNDAY IN THE NE PANHANDLES AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT COMES SWEEPING THROUGH COINCIDENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV TROUGH. DID INCLUDE SOME VERY LOW CHANCES FOR TSTORMS FOR AREAS LIKE PERRYTON, BEAVER, AND LIPSCOMB. IF A STORM OR 2 WAS TO DEVELOP AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY...500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 50-60KTS OF DEEP SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A MARGINALLY STRONG CELL. ANY STORM THREAT SHOULD BE OVER BY 06Z MONDAY. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... MONDAY IS LOOKING TO BE WARM AND SUNNY WITH WINDS ONLY 10-20 MPH. A COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT BUT BE PULLED BACK NORTH QUICKLY BY TUE MORNING, RESULTING IN A BREEZY BUT WARM DAY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA SANS THE NE PANHANDLES...WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWER TO LIFT THROUGH. REMOVED ANY STORM CHANCES FROM THE FORECAST TUE AS NEGATIVE FACTORS (ESPECIALLY CAPPING) FAR OUTWEIGH THE POSITIVE FACTORS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... MED RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOME AND HAVE GONE THE PATH OF THE ECMWF/GEM WHICH ARE WARMER THAN THE GFS. AS OF THIS WRITING... PRECIP CHANCES LOOK PRETTY MEAGER IN THIS PERIOD. SIMPSON FIRE WEATHER... TODAY... LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW TODAY. SATURDAY... ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY OVER A GOOD PART OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE NW PANHANDLES. SUNDAY... THE NW HALF OF THE PANHANDLES WILL PROBABLY SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS SSW WINDS OF 25-35 MPH COMBINE WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES. SUNDAY COULD BE A BIT ON THE HIGHER END OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER AREAS SUCH AS DALHART AND BOISE CITY. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THESE AREAS IS WHETHER THE FUEL LOADING IS ENOUGH TO CREATE/MAINTAIN LARGE FIRES. MONDAY... THE SW HALF OF THE PANHANDLES COULD SEE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH UP TO 15 MPH SW TWENTY FOOT WINDS AND POSSIBLE SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON. TUESDAY... ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. WEDNESDAY... ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN BEYOND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FREQUENT ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SIMPSON && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ 99/14