643 FXUS63 KLBF 281133 AAA AFDLBF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 633 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NERN WY APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING EAST SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD CARRY IT INTO NRN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF THE LOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS SWRN NEB WHILE THE FAR NORTHEAST REMAINS IN THE UPPER 30S. THE RAP...GEM REGIONAL AND NAM CONTINUE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH TRANSITIONS TO RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTN SOUTH OF THE FRONT. VERY LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED...0.05 INCHES OR LESS WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THIS COULD BE UNDERDONE GIVEN THE MODELS MAY BE USING RADAR AS A QPF GUIDE AND THERE IS NO RADAR COVERAGE ACROSS NERN WY. SO POPS ARE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH IS IN PLACE UNTIL THE SYSTEMS CLEARS THE BLACK HILLS. OBSERVATION SITES IN NORTHEAST WYOMING HAVE DROPPED BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES IN THE SNOW SO THERE MAY AN OPPORTUNITY FOR HIGHER QPF THAN SHOWN BY THESE MODELS. THE ECM DOES NOT PRODUCE VERY HIGH QPF EITHER. THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING AND IN DOING SO TUGS ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WE SHOULD SEE A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH WRN NEB AFTER MIDNIGHT SETTING THINGS UP FOR A WARM DAY ON SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014 A TRANSIENT LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...BUT THEN BREAK DOWN LATE SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A SOUTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR IN ADVANCE OF THE LEE SFC TROUGH AS A DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND COMBINES WITH A FULL LATE MARCH SUN. HIGHS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S SATURDAY FOR MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS REGION AND POINTS SOUTH WITH UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE. DEW POINT FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLE WITH RECENT SIMILAR EVENTS DISPLAYING A MOIST BIAS OF 20 DEGREES OR MORE AT TIMES ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ECM DATA AND THE WRF-ARW SEEM TO HAVE HANDLE THOSE CASES BETTER...KEYING IN ON THE ADVECTION/MIXING OF ABNORMALLY DRY AIR FROM OUR SOUTHWEST. THOSE MODELS WERE USED AS A STARTING POINT...AND THEN ADJUSTED MANUALLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED MIXING/DRYING. IN ADDITION...THE SHARPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ELUDED TO ABOVE WILL WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEP MIXING GENERATED FROM STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO ALLOW FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25...POSSIBLY 35 MPH...RANGE LATE MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LARGE TD AND DRY BULB SPREAD...MINIMUM RH OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS FIRE ZONES. WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONES 204...206...209...210 & 219 WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE ANTICIPATION THAT A RFW WILL BE REQUIRED. SUNDAY IS A BIT LESS APPARENT...INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SHADE OUR CURED 1HR FUELS AND WINDS ARE FAR LESS CERTAIN. DESPITE A SIMILAR TD/T SETUP AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKDOWN PATTERN...WILL HOLD OFF FOR ANOTHER MODEL SUITE UNTIL ISSUING ANY FIRE HEADLINES FOR SUNDAY. GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THE LOCATION OF A SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONT...WITH THE ECM AND GFS OFF BY GREATER THAN 100 MILES...THERE/S BUST POTENTIAL CONCERNING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. AS OF NOW...GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE ECM CAMP WHICH IS THE WARMER AND DRIER SOLUTION FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. HIGHS MAY APPROACH 80F SOUTH OF I80 SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER...MID 60S IS FORECAST. SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WAVE TRANSLATES EAST ONTO THE PLAINS...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...HOWEVER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING. SFC TD/T SPREADS OF UP TO 40-50F WILL YIELD HIGH BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND AND POSSIBLY A FEW CG STRIKES. MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL BE PULLED SOUTH BEHIND THE WAVE ON MONDAY...WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...BUT ATTM THE MODELS SEEM TO BE TARGETING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE BEST FORCING/HEAVIEST QPF/ACCUMULATIONS. BEYOND MONDAY...QUASI-ZONAL TO AT TIMES SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TARGET THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TO ANOTHER TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WEST COAST BYE LATE WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS PROBABLE IN THIS PATTERN WITH SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR THE REGION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014 AREAS OF MVFR CIGS IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR FROM 18Z ONWARD. ONE AREA OF CONCERN IS ALONG U.S.HIGHWAY 20 WHERE AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL. THE RAP MODEL SUGGESTED MVFR/IFR CIGS NEAR KVTN THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR AND THIS IS WHAT THE FORECAST USES FOR KVTN. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-209-210-219. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...JACOBS AVIATION...CDC