754 FXUS62 KCAE 281041 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 641 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... TODAY...A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS TODAY. THE NAM AND GFS MOS PLUS RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT HIGH POPS. BASED TIMING ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY. THE NAM INDICATES JUST WEAK INSTABILITY. THE HRRR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT KEEPING THE STRONGER CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS INSTEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS. USED THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. TONIGHT...THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORT CONTINUED HIGH POPS TONIGHT. COVERAGE MAY INCREASE TOWARD MORNING AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A HIGHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MORNING. SHEAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INDICATING WELL- ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR BUT THE NAM SUGGESTS ANY SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE DIURNAL TIMING SHOULD ALSO HELP LIMIT INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS BETTER BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SATURDAY...MOISTURE SHOULD BE HIGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THE NAM INDICATES THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE MODELS WERE MORE CONSISTENT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING. WE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS DURING MUCH OF THE DAY WITH THE TIMING DIFFICULT BECAUSE ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS GREATER IN THE MORNING...BUT CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE HIGHER DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL BE HIGH. THE MODELS INDICATE H85 WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -3 DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE OF THIS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING AS DRYING BECOMES DOMINATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WE USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DRY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COOLEST NIGHT SHOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIGHT WINDS. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF AND EKD MOS SUPPORTS LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR BEGINNING MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY. THE GFS...ECMWF... AND EKD MOS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CEILINGS AROUND SUNRISE...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY...BUT BETTER CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LAMP GUIDANCE INDICATE MVFR CIGS CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WHILE NAM INDICATES A PERIOD OF CIGS ABOVE 3000 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL LEAN A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE MORE PESSIMISTIC LAMP FORECAST. LATEST CAE VWP SHOWING 40 KT WIND AROUND 2 KFT EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. WILL MENTION LLWS FOR ALL TAF SITES UNTIL AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$