949 FXUS64 KLUB 280444 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1144 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014 .AVIATION... LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY MID MORNING FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED. && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014/ SHORT TERM... EARLIER WIND MAXIMUM HAVING PASSED...WE ARE SEEING THE GRADUAL DECREASE IN SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON JUST AS WE EXPECTED. THE WIND AND BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ZONES WAS ALLOWED TO CONCLUDE ON SCHEDULE WHILE WIND SPEEDS BY EARLY THIS EVENING ALSO SHOULD BE MUCH LESS AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS WITH THE WAVE PULLING FURTHER TO THE EAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE PANHANDLE WILL FILL IN BEHIND LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...AND THIS ALSO DOESNT APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY WITH MODEST NORTH BREEZES...PERHAPS IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE BRIEFLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AS STRONGER PART OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT PASSES LATE TOMORROW MORNING. FEW CHANGES OVERALL FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN LONG TERM... A MINOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GLIDE THROUGH THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS EARLY SATURDAY. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY WITH BACKING UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A WESTERN STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO WEST TEXAS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TRANSLATES EAST AND TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE...LIKELY SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH...IF NOT A TOUCH STRONGER...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LEE TROUGH FURTHER DEEPENS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS LOCALLY. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF WINDS...THE ONGOING DROUGHT...AND RECENT WIND EVENTS...WE DID DECIDE TO ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING DUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE MERIDIONAL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT IN IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THOUGH THE AIR MAY BE DRY ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER NEAR THE TX/NM LINE. THE WESTERN STORM IS THEN PROGGED TO LIFT THROUGH THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST ROUND OF NWP HAVE SLOWED THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT INTO OUR FA DURING THE DAY MONDAY...ONLY BRIEFLY BACK-DOORING THE FRONT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING OUT. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE SLOWED THE FROPA IN THE GRIDS AND WARMED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S FOR ALL BY THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES...WHERE AN EARLIER FROPA MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE. THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EARLY TUESDAY SHOULD QUICKLY RETREAT NORTH AS ANOTHER ROUND OF CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE NEXT ITERATION OF WESTERN TROUGHINESS. A DRYLINE WILL LIKELY TAKE SHAPE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY SOMEWHERE OFF THE CAPROCK...AND IT COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON MOIST CONVECTION SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA. IMPROVING MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD BRING THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE DRYLINE...THOUGH THE BEST THREAT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO THE EAST OF THE FA. EVEN SO...WE DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CLIPPING THE FAR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE...WARM...DRY AND BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD CREATE A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. YET ANOTHER WARM...DRY AND BREEZY DAY WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY...THOUGH MODEST COOLING MAY OCCUR ON THE CAPROCK AS THICKNESSES LOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM. IT APPEARS ANY BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED EVEN FARTHER EAST...MEANING DRY WEATHER...EVEN FOR THE FAR EASTERN ZONES BY MID-WEEK. A MODEST COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLY THURSDAY... WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. FIRE WEATHER... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS RETAINED FAIRLY WELL THROUGH THE MIDDAY WIND MAXIMUM...AND ONLY IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO HAVE WE BEGUN TO SEE WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON THE CAPROCK. WIND SPEEDS APPEAR ADEQUATE FOR CONTINUED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS UNTIL NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WHEN WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ABRUPTLY ABATE. A WEAK FRONT WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT...WITH WINDS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. RMCQUEEN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 37 69 32 72 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 TULIA 41 69 38 72 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 PLAINVIEW 41 71 39 73 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 LEVELLAND 42 74 38 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 LUBBOCK 41 74 39 74 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 DENVER CITY 46 74 39 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 BROWNFIELD 45 76 38 74 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 CHILDRESS 43 70 39 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 SPUR 44 76 41 76 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 ASPERMONT 45 80 41 78 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 01