051 FXUS62 KCAE 280353 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1153 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION LOOKS AS IF IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS THAT COVERED. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD REMAIN MIXED DUE TO WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL EXTEND FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONGEST 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT. LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS...MOVING INTO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WE HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE PERIOD ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH MIDLANDS/PIEDMONT. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS...WENT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE MOS CONSENSUS IN LINE WITH THE SREF GUIDANCE FOR THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE WARMER IN THE EAST MIDLANDS IF MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS. FORECASTED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT NEAR THE NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT ONLY TWO DAYS FROM THE THE EVENT. LOOKS LIKE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE WRN TN VALLEY/WRN NC NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NC/MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN EAST OF THE CWA BY EVENING. LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE DELMARVA/MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAINS LOW FOR SATURDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A HARD TIME HANDLING THE EVENT. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED LEANING TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS...WITH ONE QUARTER INCH OR LESS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LONG TERM MODELS ACTUALLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AFTER FINALLY MOVING THE SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ENTER THE REGION SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...BUT GRADUALLY MOVE THIS FEATURE EASTWARD BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...LAMP GUIDANCE AND MAV/MET MOS SUGGESTING MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING 09Z-11Z. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CEILINGS AROUND SUNRISE... BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY...BUT BETTER CHANCE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LAMP GUIDANCE INDICATE MVFR CIGS CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD... WHILE NAM AND SREF MODELS INDICATE A PERIOD OF CIGS ABOVE 3000 FEET FROM 15Z-21Z FOR CAE/CUB/OGB. MODELS DIFFERENCES YIELD LOW CONFIDENCE FOR CIGS...SO WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. KEPT CIGS MVFR FOR AGS/DNL THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT. NAM MODELS INDICATED LLWS POSSIBLE 05Z-15Z...THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE OF LLWS LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AFTER SUNRISE. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$