418 FXUS62 KCAE 280249 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1048 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFF THE COAST. INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING HAS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH WITH MOST LOCATIONS STILL AROUND THE UPPER 50S TO 60 DEGREES. REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT WHILE PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION LOOKS AS IF IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS THAT COVERED. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD REMAIN MIXED DUE TO WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SET UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST 850MB MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT. LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS...MOVING INTO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD MORNING. HIGHEST POPS DURING THE PERIOD ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH MIDLANDS/PIEDMONT. DUE TO INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS...WENT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS IN LINE WITH SREF FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE WARMER EAST MIDLANDS IF MORE SUNSHINE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT NEAR MOS. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT ONLY TWO DAYS FROM THE THE EVENT. LOOKS LIKE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE WRN TN VALLEY/WRN NC NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NC/MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN EAST OF THE CWA BY EVENING. LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE DELMARVA/MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. . CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAINS LOW FOR SATURDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A HARD TIME HANDLING THE EVENT. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED LEANING TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS...WITH ONE QUARTER INCH OR LESS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LONG TERM MODELS ACTUALLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AFTER FINALLY MOVING THE SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ENTER THE REGION SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY REGION WITH A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT GRADUALLY MOVE THIS FEATURE EASTWARD BY THURSDAY. THEREFORE WITH CONFIDENCE LOW DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES...BUT HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS WITH A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN FOR NOW FOR THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR/JUST ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...LAMP GUIDANCE AND MAV/MET MOS SUGGESTING MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING 09Z-11Z. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CEILINGS AROUND SUNRISE... BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY...BUT BETTER CHANCE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LAMP GUIDANCE INDICATE MVFR CIGS CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD... WHILE NAM AND SREF MODELS INDICATE A PERIOD OF CIGS ABOVE 3000 FEET FROM 15Z-21Z FOR CAE/CUB/OGB. MODELS DIFFERENCES YIELD LOW CONFIDENCE FOR CIGS...SO WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. KEPT CIGS MVFR FOR AGS/DNL THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT. NAM MODELS INDICATED LLWS POSSIBLE 05Z-15Z...THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE OF LLWS LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AFTER SUNRISE. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$