545 FXUS61 KCTP 280227 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1027 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND REACH THE DELMARVA REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW AS IT CLOSES OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH ONTARIO TOUCHED OFF AN AREA OF SHOWERS WHICH BRUSHED NORTHWEST PA THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED ACTIVITY LEFT ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN 850 MB LLJ STRENGHTENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS ORGANIZED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS INTENSIFYING JET OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL KY AND TN. OH ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN BRUSH MY NORTHWEST COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT WHILE THE REST OVERSPREADS THE REGION IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS. MESONET INDICATES SHELTERED NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VALLEYS IN THE 33F TO 36F RANGE...SUPPORTIVE OF SOME SLGT CHC FZRA MENTIONS AS RAIN ARRIVES OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY ICING ON ROADS...BUT THERE COULD BE A VER BRIEF PERIOD OF GLAZING ON OUTDOOR OBJECTS. MAINTAINED EARLIER MODIFIED POPS...WHILE MAINTAINING POPS INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL IN THE POST MIDNIGHT HOURS AS THE LL JET AND ASSOC PLUME OF MOISTURE WORK INTO THE STATE AHEAD OF APPROACHING CDFRONT. SREF AND OPER MDL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE TEMPS NR 32F EARLY SAT AM ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PA. WILL THEREFORE MENTION THE CHC FOR A BIT OF FZRA EARLY SAT AM OVR THE MTNS NORTH AND EAST OF IPT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY BRINING A PERIOD OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. WITH MDT SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FROPA...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...AND WARM TEMPS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TO PRODUCE FIRST RAINFALL OF SIGNIFICANCE OF SOME TIME...HOWEVER SPEED OF FRONT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT. QPF TOTALS LOOK TO BE IN THE QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH RAIN ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID UP POPS FOR LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE WAVE ON THE FRONT PULLS OUT LATER IN THE WEEKEND. BEST DAY WILL BE MONDAY. CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS ON TUE WITH COLD FRONT. NOT REAL COLD ON WED. CHC OF MORE RAIN SHOWERS ON THU WITH WARM FRONT. STILL A LOT OF MODEL SPREAD FOR WEEKEND. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW OVER THE NRN GRT LKS REGION AT 12Z FRI MOVG NEWD INTO SRN QUEBEC BY 00Z SAT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE APPLCHNS EARLY FRI BEFORE SHIFTING EWD AND STALLING OUT INVOF THE MID-ATLC PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. H85 MSTR FLUX/AXIS OF ABV NORMAL PWATS PRESENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH STG LLVL WAA VIA 50+KT WSWLY LLJ COUPLED WITH MINIMAL MODEL SPREAD IN THE PCPN TIMING WILL SUPPORT ABV AVG CONFIDENCE IN FCST CATG POPS WITH LGT-MOD QPF AMTS GENERALLY IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 RANGE. THE NEXT H5 SHORTWAVE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN OVER THE PLAINS FRI NGT IS FCST TO AMPLIFY AS IT PROGRESSES EWD THRU THE OH VLY/MID-SOUTH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND ARRIVES IN THE MID-ATLC STATES BY 12Z SUN. AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK ENEWD FROM ERN KY/TN THRU NC/WV/VA TO A POSITION OFF THE MID-ATLC/SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE MODEL SPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MUCH GREATER THAN THE SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE PENNSYLVANIA WILL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SPREADS THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW MTNS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK-DIFFUSE WARM FRONT. OVERALL DETERIORATING FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE SPENT EXPERIENCING WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR A TIME FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE DETERIORATING ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. OUTLOOK... SAT...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A GUSTY NW WIND. MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. TUE...MVFR IN SHRA PSBL NW/VFR ELSEWHERE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/MARTIN/STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL AVIATION...LA CORTE