991 FXUS66 KEKA 262302 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 402 PM PDT WED MAR 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND SUNBREAKS. SOME SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. TTHURSDAY WILL BRING A BRIEF DRYING TREND BEFORE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARRIVES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .DISCUSSION...BY ALL ACCOUNTS THE TSUNAMI TEST WENT WELL TODAY WITH FUTURE ASSESSMENT FORTHCOMING. WEATHER WISE THIS MORNING STARTED OUT WITH MAINLY STRATAFORM RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL REGIONS BUT BY AFTERNOON SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LEAD TO A MORE CONVECTIVE ENVIRORNMENT. AS OF 4PM SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AROUND THE CWA WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF STRIKES AROUND TRINITY COUNTY. SMALL HAIL WAS OBSERVED NEAR BRIDGEVILLE. OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL VALLEY SOME TORNADO WARNINGS WERE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON AROUND GLENN COUNTY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BUT SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. THURSDAY WILL STILL SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL BUT ONLY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. THEN THE PATTERN BECOMES VERY WET AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT ORIENTED PERPEDICULAR TO THE COAST CATCHES A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF AVALAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE PLENTIFUL RAINFALL AROUND DEL NORTE COUNTY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AS IT REMAINS AT NEARLY A 90 DEGREE ANGLE TO THE COAST ALLOWING A CONVEYER BELT OF RAIN TO DRIVE INTO THE COAST AND INTERIOR. (SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW). THE MAIN RAIN BAND SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY WITH STILL A FEW SHOWERS AROUND. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT SUPPLY NEARLY AS MUCH RAIN...BUT STILL FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SYSTEMS AND PERHAPS LOWER SNOW LEVELS. && .AVIATION... MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT WILL PREVAIL AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES TONIGHT REDUCING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA REDUCING CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT KUKI AS THE SHOWERS MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. && .MARINE... LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK. THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA AND THE SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... ...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONT TO BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS POISED TO DELIVER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER RAIN PRONE AREAS SUCH AS DEL NORTH COUNTY AND ALONG COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES. RAINFALL WILL BEGIN OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY EARLY FRIDAY AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS HUMBOLDT AND TRINITY COUNTIES THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY MOST RAINFALL WILL BE OCCURING OVER MENDOCINO COUNTY... HOWEVER...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. THE EEL RIVER AT FERNBRIDGE WILL REACH NEAR MONITOR STAGE ON SUNDAY. ON MONDAY ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER THAN WERE PREVIOUSLY MEASURED DURING THIS EVENT. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY PZZ450-475. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT SUNDAY PZZ470. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY PZZ455. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA