238 FXUS61 KCAR 251951 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 351 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE CENTER OF A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST EAST OF THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ALL EYES ARE ON THE POWERFUL LOW PASSING TO OUR EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS WINDS THE STRENGTH OF A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE OFFSHORE AND IS NOT TO BE TAKEN LIGHTLY. THE LOW EXPLODES IN STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NORTH TO GEORGES BANK EARLY WEDNESDAY, THEN MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST, PASSING JUST OFF NOVA SCOTIA LATE WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE LOW TRACK BUT HAVE BEEN TRENDING EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THE PAST FEW RUNS. THERE IS MORE DISAGREEMENT ON MODEL QPF WITH THE GFS BEING NOTABLY LIGHT AND THE NAM BEING QUITE HEAVY. ECMWF HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT WITH A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF BLENDED WITH THE QPF FROM THE RFC. GOOD AGREEMENT ON WINDS WHICH WILL BE QUITE STRONG ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. INCREASED SNOW TOTALS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND WE ARE EXPANDING THE BLIZZARD WARNINGS NORTHWEST TO THE REST OF WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES, ISSUING WINTER STORM WARNINGS ALONG I-95 FROM BANGOR TO HOULTON, AND ISSUING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FOR EVERYWHERE N/W EXCEPT NORTHERN SOMERSET. ISSUING THESE BASED ON IMPACT OF COMBO OF STRONG WIND AND SNOW. EXPECT SNOW TO BE EASILY BLOWABLE WITH SNOW RATIOS FROM 15 TO 1 TO 20 TO 1 AND THE STRONG NORTH WINDS. MAIN CONCERNS FOR FORECAST ERRORS INVOLVE BANDING IN DOWNEAST MAINE WHICH COULD LEAD TO EVEN HEAVIER TOTALS THAN FORECAST, AND THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FAR NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE SNOW SHIELD. HIGHEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS FOR ALONG AND JUST N/W OF I-95 REGARDING THE NW EDGE OF THE SNOW SHIELD. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... WHATS LEFT OF STEADY ACCUMULATING SNFL WILL MOVE E OF THE FA WED EVE AS THE INTENSE LOW HEADS OUT INTO THE OPEN ATLC...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE...SCT SN SHWRS AND BLSN INTO THE OVRNGT HRS AS NW WINDS REMAIN QUITE BRISK. PERHAPS PARTIAL CLRG WILL THEN OCCUR BY THU MORN AS A NARROW SFC RIDGE APCHS AND THEN CROSSES THE REGION THU AFTN. HI CLDNSS WILL ALREADY BEGIN STREAMING FROM THE W LATE THU AS MID LVL WARM ADVCN VERY QUICKLY SETS UP OVR THE FA WITH THE APCH OF A S/WV AND SFC LOW FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS. LGT SN WILL THEN SPREAD EWRD INTO THE FA FROM QB THU NGT. WITH LLVL WARM ADVCN INCREASING WITH TM THU NGT...OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE EARLY...AT OR JUST PRIOR TO MDNGT...WITH TEMPS THEN SLOWLY RISING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU NGT. BY MID TO LATE MORN FRI...WARMER SFC-925 MB TEMPS SHOULD TRANSITION SN TO RN BEGINNING ACROSS DOWNEAST AND EAST CENTRAL MAINE...AND THEN EVEN INTO N CNTRL PTNS OF THE REGION BY FRI AFTN WITH FAR NRN PTNS OF THE FA GETTING A MIX OF RN/SN BEFORE PRECIP TAPERS TO SHWRS. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES OF TMG BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF...WE DID NOT GO ABV LIKELY POPS FOR THIS EVENT AND KEPT QPF AND ASSOCIATED SNFL LGT FOR EACH 6 HR PD THU NGT INTO FRI...WITH SN RATIOS 10 TO 12:1 THU NGT INTO FRI MORN AND THEN MUCH LESS FOR FRI AFTN...DUE TO AT LEAST SOME RN. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ANY LGT RN/SN OR RN/SN SHWRS WILL END W TO E ACROSS THE FA BY LATE FRI NGT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE ARCTIC...SO OVRNGT LOWS FRI NGT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NGTS WITH HI TEMPS ON SAT REBOUNDING INTO THE 30S MOST LCTNS AND EVEN LOWER 40S OVR DOWNEAST AREAS. ANOTHER LOW PRES SYS FROM THE LOWER OH VLY WILL POTENTIALLY SPREAD MORE PRECIP TO SPCLY THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA LATER SAT NGT INTO SUN. WITH COLDER AIR WORKING SWRD INTO THE FA FROM NRN QB PROV...PRECIP TYPE MAY BEGIN AS RN/SN MIX AND THEN PERHAPS TRANSITION TO ALL SN TO THE COAST BY ERLY SUN MORN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM... WE KEPT HIGHEST POPS IN THE HI CHC TO LOW LIKELY RANGE OVR DOWNEAST AREAS AND LOWER CHC POPS FURTHER N. ANY SN WITH THIS EVENT SHOULD END SUN AFTN...BRINGING FAIR AND COLD CONDITIONS ON MON AND SOMEWHAT MILDER TEMPS ON TUE. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY FOR BAR HARBOR WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR BANGOR AND HOULTON. SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW AND SOME FALLING SNOW ALSO EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. SHORT TERM: LIFR TO IFR ALL SITES WITH ENDING SN BUT CONTD BLSN WED NGT...IMPROVING TO VFR BY THU. CONTD VFR INTO THU EVE...THEN CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN LGT SN LATER THU NGT INTO FRI MORN...AND THEN MIXED LGT RN/SN FRI AFTN INTO EVE. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE FRI NGT AND CONT SO INTO SAT. ANOTHER PD OF SNFL IS POSSIBLE SPCLY FROM KHUL SWRD SAT NGT INTO SUN WITH POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A POWERFUL LOW PASSES OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 14 FEET LATE WEDNESDAY. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW, EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY COASTAL EROSION PROBLEMS. SHORT TO LONG TERM: AFT THE STM WRNG WED EVE...WE WILL NEED A PD OF GALE WRNGS OVRNGT WED...TRANSITIONING TO AN SCA ON THU. NOT SURE WVS WILL DIMINISH BLO SCA THRESHOLDS...BUT WINDS SHOULD BRIEFLY SUBSIDE BY LATE THU INTO THU EVE...BEFORE INCREASING TO AT LEAST SCA RANGE LATE THU NGT INTO FRI...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OF GALE FORCE WINDS FRI MORN. KEPT PRETTY CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV HTS. && .CLIMATE... BANGOR REACHED ZERO THIS MORNING, WHICH NOT ONLY BROKE THE DAILY RECORD LOW, BUT ALSO WAS THE LOWEST TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR THIS LATE IN THE SEASON. CARIBOU REACHED 8 BELOW THIS MORNING, WHICH MAKES FOR 14 DAYS OF SUBZERO COLD THIS MARCH, WHICH TIES THE RECORD FOR MOST MARCH DAYS BELOW ZERO, LAST SET IN 1939. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ001-002-004-005-010-031. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ006-011-015. BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ016-017-029-030-032. MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOISY SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...VJN AVIATION...FOISY/VJN MARINE...FOISY/VJN CLIMATE...FOISY