644 FXUS61 KPHI 250835 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 435 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS EAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING THEN EXPLOSIVELY INTENSIFY AS IT PASSES WELL TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR SOUTHEAST CANADA ON FRIDAY WILL TRAIL A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY. A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FORMING ON THAT FRONT AND PUSH EAST OF THE DELMARVA SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES ALONG THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS NEAR JAMES BAY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WAS NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH ANOTHER HIGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. AN UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A CYCLONICALLY CURVED 250 MB JET WAS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF MORE FOCUSED 850 MB WAA FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. IT IS SPRING, YET MOTHER NATURE THINKS OTHERWISE. AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST TODAY WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND PHASING STARTS TO TAKE PLACE BY LATER TODAY, THE TROUGH AXIS ITSELF WILL START TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. AS THIS OCCURS, LARGE SCALE LIFT AIDED BY A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA. THIS MAY FURTHER BE ENHANCED SOME BY A SURFACE TROUGH EVENTUALLY BECOMING POSITIONED NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE SHOULD HELP TO ORGANIZE AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC, WHICH THEN TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD. THIS MAY HOWEVER CONSOLIDATE ACROSS THE DELMARVA TO NEAR THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA TOWARD EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH WARMTH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TO ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX. THERE WILL ALSO BE WET BULBING OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY GIVEN THE RATHER DRY SURFACE DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THESE SHOULD INCREASE SOME GIVEN AN INITIAL SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND DEVELOPING. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL DELAY THE PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. OVERALL, WE MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. DESPITE THE COLD AIRMASS, WE ARE IN LATE MARCH AND THE SUN ANGLE DOES PLAY A ROLE ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT INTENSITY SNOW. THEREFORE, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND TO NON-ROADWAY SURFACES. AS A RESULT, IMPACT-WISE THIS LOOKS TO BE NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A BIT MORE QPF INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AS ENHANCED LIFT ARRIVES FROM THE FIRST SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SHOULD BE LIGHT. OF CONCERN ARE PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN/EASTERN NEW JERSEY LATER TODAY. THESE AREAS START TO BECOMING UNDER THE DEVELOPING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE, AS THE COASTAL STORM STARTS TO DEEPEN AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ARRIVES. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THOUGH, WARM ENOUGH TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME OCCURRENCE SHOULD LIMIT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THEREFORE, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT HAS BEEN ISSUED IS DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW. AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS USED ALTHOUGH THIS WAS TWEAKED SOME ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS INLAND. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN EARLY THIS MORNING TO HELP ASSIST WITH THE HOURLY GRIDS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EAST WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH A COUPLED UPPER-LEVEL JET TO ALLOW THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. SINCE THE PRESSURE DROP WITH THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE RATHER IMPRESSIVE, THE STORM WILL ESSENTIALLY BE BOMBING OUT. IT STILL LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO SPARE OUR REGION FROM THE REAL SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS, HOWEVER SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES GIVE US SOME PAUSE. AS THE STORM SYSTEM WRAPS UPS AND IT WORKS NORTHEASTWARD, A DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING DEFORMATION AREA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO GET ONTO THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS FOR A TIME TONIGHT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN ENHANCED PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME, AND GIVEN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE SNOWFALL RATES WOULD INCREASE FOR AWHILE. IT IS THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE THAT IS KEY AS IT WILL PROBABLY HAVE A RATHER SHARP WESTERN EDGE AS THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SLOPES UPWARDS AND WEAKENS FARTHER INLAND. THIS ADDS MORE OF A CHALLENGE SINCE MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE TOUGH TO PINPOINT MANY TIMES. WE DO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVIER QPF THAT WRAPS ONSHORE FOR A TIME THIS EVENING, HOWEVER THE DURATION IS MORE UNCERTAIN. IN ADDITION, SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DUAL SURFACE LOW FEATURE WITH THE INITIAL ONE FARTHER WEST. THIS MAY EXPLAIN WHY SOME OF THAT GUIDANCE ALSO HAS HIGHER QPF ON LAND. WHILE THIS MAY BE PRESENT AT FIRST, WE BELIEVE THE SURFACE LOWS WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE RAPIDLY DEEPENING CYCLONE AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT AND UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT HELPS TO FOCUS FALLING PRESSURES IN ONE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS, ANY RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING. THE GUIDANCE HAS BACKED THE HIGHER QPF A BIT WESTWARD ESPECIALLY THE NAM AND ECMWF. WE BELIEVE THE NAM IS TO HIGH WITH ITS QPF, HOWEVER EVEN THE LATEST ECMWF BRINGS THE QUARTER INCH QPF CONTOUR FARTHER INLAND. THIS WILL HINGE ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ALSO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FRONTOGENETIC BANDING WITHIN THE WRAP AROUND/COMMA HEAD. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND WPC, WE DID NOT GO WITH THE MORE ROBUST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND EASTERN NEW JERSEY. HOWEVER, WE DID INCREASE THE SNOW AMOUNTS. THE LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE THIS EVENING, AND THAT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ENHANCED RATES ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE WRAP AROUND SNOW. FARTHER WEST, THE SNOW SHOULD WEAKEN AND COLLAPSE TOWARDS THE COAST AS THE OCEAN STORM REALLY TAKES SHAPE. THIS HOWEVER ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES ESPECIALLY MAY THEN BE REPLACED BY SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES. WITH ALL THIS BEING SAID, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR MARYLAND AND DELAWARE ZONES AND ALSO FOR SOUTHEASTERN AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW JERSEY. THIS IS FOR A GENERAL 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW, HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE HIGHER AMOUNTS OCCUR. IF THIS APPEARS TO BECOME MORE LIKELY, THEN AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED. GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE ATTM, WE WENT THE ADVISORY ROUTE. THE AMOUNTS DROP OFF TO THE WEST AND THEREFORE NO ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME FARTHER INLAND. WE TRIED TO PLACE THE ADVISORY WHERE WE BELIEVE THE BEST CHC OF HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ACHIEVED ALONG WITH THE TIMING OCCURRING AT NIGHT, AND THEREFORE A HIGHER POTENTIAL IMPACT TO TRAVEL. THE ADVISORY WILL GENERALLY RUN THROUGH THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY, AS THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE. FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, A MENTION WILL REMAIN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO COAST. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND PROBABLY A DELAY IN THE WINDS ALOFT TO RESPOND DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVER LAND EFFICIENTLY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM BLEND WAS USED OVERALL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 500MB: RIDGING DEVELOPS BEHIND THE NORTHEASTWARD DEPARTING NORTHWEST ATLANTIC STORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA FRIDAY WITH A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORT WAVE TO FOLLOW ON A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK NEXT WEEKEND. THIS LATTER SHORT WAVE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR MORE AMPLITUDE...ASSOCIATED SLOWING AND UNDOING THE PROGRESSION TOWARD A NICE START EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN OTHER WORDS...WE MIGHT FIND OURSELVES WITH A GALE NOREASTER DEVELOPING-AT THIS TIME...JUST DONT KNOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN HERE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY? TEMPERATURES: SO FAR THE THE FIRST 24 DAYS OF MARCH HAS AVERAGED 3 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (COLDEST DEPARTURE NEAR MOUNT POCONO AND WARMEST DEPARTURE NEAR GEORGETOWN). IT CONTINUES RATHER DRY WITH MOST AREAS LESS THAN 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION. WEDNESDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT LEAST 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN WITH THE CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE NEAR 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY...THEN WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMALS FRIDAY ONWARD (I.E. MILDER AFTER WEDNESDAY). FORECAST BASIS IS PRIMARILY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/25 GFS/NAM MOS FOR WED-THU; 00Z/25 GFS MEXMOS THU NIGHT AND FRI AND THEREAFTER 0542Z/25 WPC EXTENDED GUIDANCE. THE 21Z/24 3HR SREF POPS WERE CONSIDERED FOR THE SHORT TERM AND THE 00Z/25 GEFS POPS WERE CONSIDERED FOR THE LONGER TERM. WEDNESDAY...BLUSTERY COLD WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN LEFTOVER LOW LVL MOISTURE WITH LARGE LOW LVL LAPSE RATES AND EVENTUALLY A STABILIZING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTN. CERTAINLY LOTS OF VIRGA EXPECTED. NW WIND GUST 35 MPH. WIND DIMINISHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST FINALLY GAINS A CONTROLLING INFLUENCE HERE. NAM LOOKS A TOUCH ON THE COLD SIDE WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO THE ECMWF/UKMET. CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVG. THURSDAY...A SUNNY START THEN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS DURING THEN AFTN AS THE WAA PROCESS BEGINS WITH RIDGING ALOFT. SW WIND GUST 20 MPH. NAM LOOKS MUCH TOO COLD AND SO ON THIS DAY...USED ROUGHLY AN 80/20 GFS WEIGHTED BLEND WITH THE NAM. ECMWF AND UKMET SUPPORT OUR MILDER THAN NAM SOLN. CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVG. FRIDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVG. SATURDAY...RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS WET WITH LIGHT WIND WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE...POTENTIAL FOR FOG. BOTH THE 00Z/25 GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SWI SUB ZERO SO WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE ENSEMBLES DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH THE ONCOMING SHORT WAVE FROM THE WEST. CONFIDENCE AVG. SUNDAY-MONDAY...SHOULD GRADUALLY DRY OUT AND BECOME MILD AND NICE BY NEXT MONDAY. CAUTION...THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS SHORT WAVE TO AMPLIFY AND SLOW DOWN AND BASICALLY CHANCE OUR CURRENTLY OPTIMISTIC FORECAST FOR MONDAY TO A WETTER WINDIER COOLER SCENARIO. OUR GRIDDED WINDS LOOK WAY TOO LIGHT FOR SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE BELOW AVG. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND THEN START INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. AN INITIAL DISTURBANCE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL COMBINE WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND MAINLY SOME SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. OUR CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOW REGARDING THE START TIME AS THERE IS DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR THAT NEEDS TO BE ERODED. THEREFORE, VFR CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND ANY SNOW THAT DEVELOPS WILL RESULT IN SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THE CEILINGS MAY THEN START TO LOWER TO MVFR LATE IN THE DAY ESPECIALLY FROM THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND EAST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY DUE TO LIGHT INTENSITY AND TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING. FOR KMIV AND KACY, SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY MIX IN AT THE START. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING EAST AND NORTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR LOOK TO OCCUR IN PERIODS OF SNOW ESPECIALLY CONSOLIDATING FROM ABOUT KILG TO THE KPHL METRO AND KTTN ON EASTWARD. THE SNOWFALL RATES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST WITH KMIV/KACY TENDING TO HAVE LIFR VISIBILITIES FOR A TIME, AND WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. KRDG AND KABE SHOULD HAVE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF TIME SUB-VFR. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END OVERNIGHT AS A COASTAL STORM RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES WELL OFFSHORE, WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. WINDS NORTHEAST TO NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY...EITHER VFR OR QUICKLY BECOMING VFR SCTVBKN AOA 3500 FT DURING THE MORNING. VERY WINDY WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 30 AND 38 KTS. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED (SCT-BKN AOA 10000 FT). SW WIND GUST 15-20 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRIDAY...VFR CIGS AOA 3500 FT BECOMING MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS STRATUS AND FOG. A SMALL CHANCE OF LLWS (WS020/22050KT) DURING THE MORNING AS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTN. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. SATURDAY...MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SHOWERY RAINS STRATUS AND FOG. SMALL CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE THIS MORNING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. IT WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND PASS OUR LATITUDE TONIGHT. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING WIND FIELD. THE 925 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 40 KNOTS LATER TONIGHT, AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND COLDER AIR WORKS IN MIXING SHOULD IMPROVE. WHILE THIS MAY BE DELAYED SOME, WE MAINTAINED THE GALE WARNING STARTING AT MIDNIGHT FOR ALL AREAS. IT MAY END UP STARTING LATER ESPECIALLY FOR DELAWARE BAY. THE INCREASING ONSHORE WIND WILL BUILD THE SEAS FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY...GALE WARNING CONTINUES AND MAY NEED AN EVENTUAL EXTENSION FOR SEVERAL HOURS INTO SATURDAY EVENING? LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVING FROM GALES TO SMALL CRAFT AND THEN SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE ABOVE SCA CONDITIONS (SOUTHWEST FLOW) AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO NEXT STORM SYSTEM. && .CLIMATE... HERE ARE THE DAILY RECORD SNOWFALL AT OUR CLIMO BIG 4: MARCH 25TH MARCH 26TH ATLANTIC CITY 2.0 IN 2013 0.1 IN 2001 PHILADELPHIA 1.7 IN 1965 0.8 IN 2001 WILMINGTON 1.2 IN 1965 0.7 IN 2001 ALLENTOWN 1.5 IN 1934 2.0 IN 1933 AS A POINT OF CLIMATOLOGICAL REFERENCE. PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD TEN 3 INCH OR GREATER SNOW EVENTS AFTER MARCH 24TH. THE LAST OCCURRED ON MARCH 31ST TO APRIL 1ST OF 1997 AS 3.9 INCHES FELL. THE GREATEST WAS 19.4 INCHES ON APRIL 3RD AND 4TH OF 1915. ALLENTOWN NEEDS 0.4 INCHES OF SNOW TO CLIMB INTO THIRD PLACE OF THE SNOWIEST SEASONS ON RECORD. ATLANTIC CITY NEEDS 0.9 INCHES TO CLIMB INTO 6TH PLACE OF THE SNOWIEST SEASON ON RECORD AND 2.8 INCHES TO SUPPLANT 2002-3 FOR 5TH SNOWIEST SEASON ON RECORD. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THE 27TH...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE MAY BE WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF RECORD: IT WOULD HELP IF THERE WERE STILL SNOW COVERING THE GROUND AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OUR FORECAST MINS WERE GENERATED FROM A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/25 GFS/NAM MOS AND THEN ADJUSTED UP A DEGREE BECAUSE THE ECMWF IS NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE NCEP MOS. MY CONFIDENCE IN OUR FORECAST TEMPERATURES BEING THIS COLD IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH AND I MAY BE PUTTING TOO MUCH TRUST IN THE NCEP MOS. IF ANYTHING THE FORECAST GUIDANCE AND OUR RESULTANT FORECAST IS A BIT TOO COLD FOR THURSDAY MORNING...AND IN LARGE PART SNOW COVER DEPENDENT. RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING. ILG PHL GED AND TTN HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF EQUALING OR SETTING NEW RECORDS. ACY 16 2001 PHL 21 1894 ILG 22 2001 1975 AND 1951 ABE 15 2001 TTN 20 1894 GED 18 1951 RDG 19 2001 MPO 6 1975 IS NOT WITHIN REACH. AS FOR THE MONTHLY AVERAGES...IT LOOKS LIKE PHL TEMPS WILL BE AVERAGING AT LEAST 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ020>027. DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ002>004. MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ012-015-019-020. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DRAG NEAR TERM...GORSE SHORT TERM...GORSE LONG TERM...DRAG AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE MARINE...DRAG/GORSE CLIMATE...