784 FXUS61 KBGM 191050 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 650 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY AND CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE REGION MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 345 AM UPDATE... UL LOW IS SPINNING INTO UPR MIDWEST TONIGHT WITH SFC LOW SITTING ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER. SFC RIDGE IS SITTING OVR NEW ENGLAND. WITH CWA ON WRN PERIPHERY OF SFC HIPRES SRLY FLOW CONTS ACRS THE REGION AND LOW CLDS HV ONCE AGAIN DVLPD ACRS CNTRL PA AND WL SPREAD NEWD TDA ON RETURN FLOW. KCCX VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING SRLY FLOW UP THRU LOWEST 8KFT OF BLYR. EXPECT THIS WL CONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY DRAWING IN INCRSG MOISTURE FM THE ATLANTIC. HWVR, HV LWRD POPS THRU THE MRNG HRS AS ONLY DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING ACRS NC WITH LATEST NAM INDICATING MEASURABLE PCPN SHUD BE FALLING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AT THIS TIME. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH REALITY AS OF 06Z AND IT BRINGS PCPN INTO NEPA AFT 17Z TDA. THUS HV GONE CHC POPS FOR NEPA UNTIL 18Z AND GRADUALLY INCRSG POPS NWD THRU 00Z TONIGHT. EXPECT LGT PCPN ACRS ALL OF CWA BY LATE AFTN WITH BULK OF PCPN FALLING IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF POCONOS, WRN CATS AND ON NOSE OF 50KT LLJ ACRS FAR NRN ZONES. HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO 40S ONCE AGAIN TDA, THO A DEGREE OR TWO LWR THAN YDA WITH EXTENSIVE CLD CVR EXPECTED. H8 TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO ARND 0C AFT 18Z THIS AFTN AND WITH GFS/EC JUST A TAD CLDR THAN NAM HV CONTD WORDING OF RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR SRN ZONES THRU NOON TDA. AS BULK OF PCPN MVS INTO RMNDR OF CWA THIS AFTN, EXPECT TEMPS TO BE WARM ENUF TO ALLOW FOR MOSTLY RAIN EXCEPT FOR WRN CATS WHERE MIX WL CONT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 345 AM UPDATE... PTYPE STILL RMNS A QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WITH A GNRL RAIN/SNOW MIX, THO SOME FRZG RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACRS HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IS NIL AT THIS POINT AS IT RMNS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH CLD AIR CAN WORK IN FOLLOWING FROPA. LATEST NAM INDICATING SVRL HRS OF FRZG RAIN FALLING RIGHT ARND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH GFS GOING RIGHT OVER TO SNOW. FOR NOW, HV MENTIONED A GNRL RAIN/SNOW OR SLEET MIX ACRS MOST OF CWA EARLY TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE FRZG RAIN ACRS WRN CATS. EXPECTING JUST A MINOR "EVENT" FOR THE OVRNGT HRS. FOR THUR, SYSTEM WL BE EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH UL WV STILL TO COME THRU. AS IT DOES SO, EXPECT CHC POPS TO CONT THRU MOST OF THE DAY. EXPECT LK ENHANCED SHOWERS TO KICK IN LATE IN THE AFTN IN 275 FLOW THO SFC TEMPS WL BE IN THE M30S, THUS WL CONT WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX THRU A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. VRY LITTLE PUSH OF CLD AIR EXPECTED AS FLOW RMNS OUT OF THE WSW DRG THE DAY WITH WIND GUSTS APPCHG 30-35 MPH. CLD AIR MVS IN FOR THUR NGT WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S. THIS WL CHANGE ANY LINGERING PCPN DOWNWIND OF LK ONTARIO OVR TO LGT SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT THAT ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WL BE WEAKENING AFT 06Z FRIDAY WITH JUST A LGT DUSTING EXPECTED AFT THIS TIME ACRS THE SRN TUG HILL. DRG THE DAY FRIDAY EXPECT SFC RIDGE TO BE OVR CWA WITH NRLY FLOW ACRS THE REGION THRU 00Z SAT. NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO QUICK TO BACK TO SRLY FLOW BY LATE AFTN WITH EC/GFS AND CMC KEEPING NRLY FLOW ACRS AREA THRU END OF THE DAY. THUS HV GONE WITH GFS GUIDANCE FOR T AND TD VALUES FOR FRIDAY. NAM IS ALSO BRINGING IN VRY LGT POPS BY 00Z SAT AND THINK THAT THIS IS TOO AGGRESSIVE, THUS WL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY UNTIL LATE FRI NGT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 2 AM UPDATE... LITTLE CHANGE. FOLLOWED QPC GUIDANCE. UNSETTLED AND COLDER THAN NORMAL. DETAILS FOLLOW FROM BEFORE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE ENTIRE LONG TERM IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE TROF EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THE TROF WILL DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, WITH THE COLD CORE EXTENDING WELL INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY MONDAY. A CYCLONE WILL SPIN OUT OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND TREK EASTWARD TO NEAR ATLANTIC CITY BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS STORM WILL SPIN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW INTO NY AND PA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ARCTIC AIR WILL CRASH THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC INTO NY STATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A POWERFUL CYCLONE WELL OFF SHORE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC AIR AND THE RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS. THIS WILL DRAG ADDITIONAL COLD AIR SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND, LEADING TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 630 AM UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY. CEILINGS WILL BE AROUND 4K FT MUCH OF TODAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z. AGAIN REMAINING VFR. AT KRME MAYBE SOME SLEET WILL FALL WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AT THE START. STEADY RAIN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN AROUND 00Z AND REMAIN THROUGH 12Z. LIKELY CIGS BELOW 2K FT SO ALTERNATES NEEDED. AT KBGM DUE TO ITS ELEVATION IFR CIGS LIKELY STARTING AT 2Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12Z. SNOW COVER ON GROUND WITH DEWPTS ABOVE FREEZING WILL CREATE ADDED FOG AT BGM SYR RME. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z. RAIN WILL BECOME SHOWERY AGAIN. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS AND CIGS BUT MAINLY MVFR STILL. SE TO S WINDS AROUND 10 KTS INCREASING LATE MORNING 10 TO 15KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 CONTINUING INTO THE EVE. WIND SHIFT WITH COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT TO SW AT 10 KTS. OUTLOOK... THU...MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR IN -SHRA/-SHSN. THUR NGT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT -SHSN ACROSS NY TERMINALS. VFR AVP. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. SATURDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PVN NEAR TERM...PVN SHORT TERM...PVN LONG TERM...DJP/TAC AVIATION...TAC