667 FXUS64 KCRP 120911 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 411 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AT 09Z COLD FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. THERE IS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A GRAVITY WAVE THAT HAS DEVELOPED JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE WAS NEAR A BEEVILLE TO VICTORIA LINE RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTH. THE FRONT SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE RAPIDLY SOUTH GIVEN THE 6-8MB 3 HR PRESSURE RISES NOTED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY WITH WIND PEAKING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THEN DECREASING LATE AFTERNOON. MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA...AND BORDER LINE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE/LAREDO. OTHERWISE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. COOL TONIGHT...WITH WIND DROPPING OFF INLAND. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BRUSH COUNTRY AND VICTORIA REGION DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S...40S ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THURSDAY...BUT COOL ACROSS THE EAST...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UNSEASONABLY COLD SHELF WATERS. && .MARINE...STRONG TO VERY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TOADY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY MID MORNING...THUS A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS...WHERE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONG BUT NOT QUITE GALE FORCE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. && .FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY OVER SOUTH TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING BRINGING GUSTY WIND AND DRIER AIR TODAY. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY DECLINE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES MAY BE MARGINAL IN SOME AREAS...BUT WIND GUSTS WILL BE WELL INTO RED FLAG CRITERIA. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. COAST WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE NEXT MAIN UPPER TROUGH...MOVING EAST TOWARD TEXAS FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. DEVELOPMENT IN THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL FLOW...MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS. A 25-30KT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 295K COMBINED WITH PWATS JUST OVER AN INCH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST MENTION LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MIX FRIDAY...HOWEVER MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HEADING INTO SATURDAY...A SECOND SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH ELONGATING THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS WHERE MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT FRONT. WITH SURFACE 1035MB HIGH...SHOULD SEE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE AT A FAIR PACE TO THE SOUTH...WHICH GOES AGAINST WHAT THE GFS SOLUTION SUGGEST. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE EURO SOLUTION BRINGING THE FRONT DOWN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY YET SLOWED DOWN JUST A BIT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS AS THE SHORTWAVE/TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH WITH MOST ACTIVITY AS ELEVATED WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS BEST FOR SUNDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REDUCE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MAINTAINED A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 60S BY MONDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND IN STORE BY TUESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 68 44 66 53 75 / 0 0 0 10 20 VICTORIA 66 37 66 48 71 / 0 0 0 10 20 LAREDO 69 45 70 53 79 / 0 0 0 10 10 ALICE 68 43 68 48 75 / 0 0 0 10 20 ROCKPORT 65 47 64 54 70 / 0 0 0 10 20 COTULLA 66 39 67 48 75 / 0 0 0 10 10 KINGSVILLE 69 43 67 50 76 / 0 0 0 10 20 NAVY CORPUS 66 49 64 56 72 / 0 0 0 10 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL... GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK... MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA... WEBB. WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD... JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM. && $$ JR/76...SHORT TERM CB/85...LONG TERM