682 FXUS65 KCYS 100555 AFDCYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 1155 PM MDT SUN MAR 9 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 844 PM MDT SUN MAR 9 2014 FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND IF ANYTHING INCREASE. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE PESKY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS. WINDS...SHOULD...REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA TONIGHT BUT IT WILL REMAIN WINDY. MODELS DO SHOW THE 800 AND 700 MB GRADIENTS REMAINING SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW THE TYPICAL CRITICAL VALUES FOR HIGH WINDS. NONE THE LESS THE CORE OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE TOWARD 12Z TONIGHT SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS 55 TO 60 MPH AROUND THAT TIME. AT THAT POINT THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX FURTHER. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT SUN MAR 9 2014 FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IS ON TRACK WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH OBSERVED AROUND CHEYENNE...SW PLATTE COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS. THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 6 PM...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE IT CANCELED A FEW HOURS EARLY SINCE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS...AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. BY LATE MONDAY EVENING...THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST WILL PUSH INLAND AND THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN REGION. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WESTWARD TO CENTRAL WYOMING...AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN UTAH. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SNOW DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS ARE TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTH OF I80...AND AROUND SUNRISE ALONG I80. SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND THE LOWER VALLEYS OF EXTREME EASTERN WYOMING. NOT VERY IMPRESSED WITH THE DYNAMIC FORCING OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH MODELS SHOWING IT MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAKENING AS ALL MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. STILL EXPECT 6 TO 12 HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WITH LOCATIONS NORTH OF I80 HAVING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING 3+ INCH SNOW AMOUNTS...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NEAR THE PINE RIDGE FROM DOUGLAS EASTWARD TO LUSK AND AROUND CHADRON NEBRASKA. FURTHER SOUTH...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOT THE BEST DIRECTION FOR UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS SNOW/RAIN EVENT...SO ACCUMULATIONS ARE MORE LIKELY EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE DAY. MODELS SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES...BUT THIS INSTABILITY IS REMOVED RELATIVELY QUICKLY DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE 25 T0 30 DEGREES LOWER THAN MONDAYS. THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN MAR 9 2014 UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. 700MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND -2C BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...UP FROM -8 TO -10C WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY WARM DAY AFTER THE COLD START WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND LOW 40S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER UTAH THAT IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL MISS OUT ON THIS AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEPS THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE CWFA. NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...COULD SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS AS GFS 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50KTS. GET ABOUT 50MTRS OF HEIGHT GRADIENT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CRAIG AND CASPER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A WIND EVENT SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING. DOWNSLOPING WINDS WOULD KEEP AREAS EAST OF THE RANGE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS SHIFT MORE NORTHEASTERLY. BY THAT TIME...WE COULD BE INFLUENCED BY LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A 100KT JET AT 250MBS...SO PRECIP CHANCES COULD BE ON THE INCREASE. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A FAST MOVING ONE AS WELL WITH BEST CHANCES FOR POPS HERE AT CHEYENNE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 1135 PM MDT SUN MAR 9 2014 WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 40 TO 50 MPH ACROSS WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH MVFR TO IFR. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT SUN MAR 9 2014 UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE RECENT PRECIPITATION AND INCREASING HUMIDITIES DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON...THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF BREEZY CONDITIONS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOWERING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SML SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB AVIATION...SML FIRE WEATHER...TJT