050 FXUS64 KLIX 080957 AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 357 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014 .SYNOPSIS...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SERN CONUS AND ERN 2/3RDS OF THE GULF WITH BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF CNTRL CANADA INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER THE TX BIG BEND/WRN TX. A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM QUEBEC OVER THE GRT LAKES THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS WHERE IT IS MAINLY A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN TX. IN THE MID LVL A STRONG S/W IS NOTED MOVING INTO THE DESERT SW WITH THE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. RIDGE WAS OVER THE SERN CONUS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS LOCATED FROM THE NERN GULF THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS. /CAB/ && .SHORT TERM...MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT OVER THE REGION WITH HIGH CLOUDS LEADING TO A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY CLOSE TO THE COAST HAVE SEEN VISIBILITIES DROP BUT NO WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUES. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S OVER THE ENTIRE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP ANOTHER FEW DEGREES THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE. TODAY WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AND THE RIDGE OVER THE SERN CONUS FLATTENS OUT. WE WILL SEE TEMPS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS H925 TEMPS WARM SOME 5-7 DEGREES C (TO AROUND 10-12C) FROM YESTERDAY MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BUT WITH CLOUDS LIKELY HANGING AROUND HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TODAY. TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WE MAY START TO SEE SOME SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY. FIRST THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC IN WRN TX THIS MORNING WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND INTO WRN LA. IT WILL FILL IN SOME BUT THIS WILL ALSO DRAW THAT WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CLOSE TO OUR CWA. AT THE SAME TIME WE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE UNDER SW FLOW AS THE S/W OVER THE DESERT SW CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH INTO MEXICO AND THE SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A WEAK IMPULSE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND AS THIS COMBINES WITH THE SLIGHTLY BETTER LL CONVERGENCE FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT ISLTD SHRA ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TONIGHT. AS FOR TOMORROW THE BEST CHANCE SHRA WILL BE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO MIDDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH SUN WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TAKING BACK OVER ALONG THE N-CNTRL AND NERN GULF THUS DIMINISHING WHAT LL CONVERGENCE WE DID HAVE. AS FOR TEMPS...MORNING LOWS SUN WILL BE A GOOD BIT WARMER THANKS TO INCREASING LL MOISTURE BUT AFTN HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. SUN NIGHT AND MON...TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER THAN SUN WITH MORNING LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. SUN NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY BUT THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER UNTIL WED. ON MON THE DISTURBANCE (NOW A CLOSED LOW) THAT HAS DUG INTO MEXICO WILL START TO LIFT ACROSS MEXICO MON AND INTO SRN TX IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER STRONG DISTURBANCE WORKING SE OUT OF THE PAC NW. WITH THE LOW IN SRN TX IT WILL START TO INCREASE THE SW FLOW OVER OUR AREA MON WITH BETTER LIFT OVER THE REGION. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A DEVELOPING SFC LOW IN THE WRN GULF AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SHRA DEVELOPING MON BUT BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE WAY MON NIGHT AND TUE. .LONG TERM...MDLS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW OVER TX NOT PHASING WITH THE PAC NW DISTURBANCE LATER IN THE WEEK AND THUS BRINGING TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CONUS. THAT SAID THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE RESPECT TO TUES SYSTEM. AFTER THAT THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS SHOW THINGS COOLING DOWN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MDLS IN THE EXTENDED WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER WEIGHT TWRDS THE GFS FOR THE TUE SYSTEM DUE TO ITS BETTER CONSISTENCY. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED IS TUE AND INTO TUE NIGHT. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THIS TIME FRAME IS THE INFLUENCE OF A S/W THAT BROKE OFF FROM THE MAIN DISTURBANCE THAT IS CURRENTLY DIGGING TWRDS MEXICO. BOTH MDLS HAVE THIS PIECE BUT THE GFS STARTS TO PUSH IT EAST FASTER WITH THE MAIN LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS SRN AND INTO THE NRN GULF. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THAT WEAK S/W WHICH DRAWS THE CLOSED LOW FURTHER NORTH AND MERGES TOGETHER ONSHORE OVER ERN TX AND WRN LA. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WRN GULF LOW AND WHERE IT TRACKS. LITTLE SHIFTS COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES OVER OUR AREA WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION...WHETHER WE WILL HAVE JUST SHRA...ISLTD TSRA...SCT TO WIDESPREAD TSRA WITH EVEN A RISK OF STRONG TO SVR WEATHER. AGAIN WE ARE LEANING TWRDS THE GFS DUE TO ITS CONSISTENCY AND THIS WOULD KEEP THE SFC LOW MAINLY OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS THUS KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE COLD SECTOR. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST ISLTD TSRA ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BEST CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. ANY SHIFT NORTH WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR TSRA. THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TUE NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN WED BUT THE COLDER AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL WED NIGHT AS A LARGE ARA OF HIGH PRESSURE WORKS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY. /CAB/ && .MARINE... PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IS QUITE WEAK AT THE MOMENT WITH SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL THUS REMAIN LIGHT AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH GENERALLY AN ONSHORE DIRECTION. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST. ITS LATITUDE COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TO NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN MID WEEK AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THEN. MEFFER && .AVIATION... MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE SOME MAINLY LIGHT FOG THAT WILL PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE. ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE OVER BY 13-14Z...THEN A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SOME SCT-BKN DECKS 020-030 FROM ABOUT MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...BLUE. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT. DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 69 51 69 51 / 0 30 30 10 BTR 69 53 70 52 / 10 30 30 10 ASD 69 52 69 53 / 10 20 30 10 MSY 68 54 69 56 / 10 20 30 10 GPT 66 53 69 54 / 10 10 20 10 PQL 67 49 70 51 / 10 10 20 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB AVIATION/MARINE: MEFFER